U.S. considers nuclear expansion and testing after New START expiry

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is evaluating a significant shift in nuclear weapons policy, including potential expansion of the arsenal and a possible return to underground testing. This strategic review follows the expiration of the New START treaty, the last major arms control agreement with Russia that had limited deployed strategic warheads for both nations.

Post-Treaty Freedom to Bolster Forces

With the treaty's constraints lifted, senior officials indicated the U.S. is now positioned to enhance its nuclear deterrence. Thomas DiNanno, the State Department’s undersecretary for arms control, stated the expired pact had imposed "unilateral constraints" on Washington. He outlined that available options now include expanding existing nuclear forces and activating non-deployed capabilities, pending presidential direction. One specific measure under consideration is reactivating disabled missile tubes on Ohio-class submarines, which would allow for more sea-based nuclear missiles.

Testing Claims and Strategic Calculations

DiNanno also provided context for President Trump's earlier suggestion about resuming nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China. He implied that both Moscow and Beijing may have already conducted low-yield tests difficult for international monitors to detect, referencing an unconfirmed suspected Chinese test in 2020. However, these claims have been met with skepticism from some experts within the U.S. weapons complex, who note the lack of detection by monitoring networks and express uncertainty about the administration's precise intentions.

Aim for New Negotiations or Risk Arms Race?

The moves are interpreted by analysts as having dual potential: they could serve as leverage to pressure Russia and China into negotiating a new, broader arms control agreement, as Trump has stated he desires a "new, improved and modernized" pact. Conversely, they risk triggering a new and unpredictable phase of nuclear competition and arms buildup among the major powers. The U.S. has not conducted a full-scale nuclear explosive test since 1992.