US pressure on Cuba intensifies as fuel blockade deepens crisis, war fears rise

Tensions between Cuba and the United States have escalated dramatically this year as the Trump administration intensifies sanctions, threatens regime change, and tightens an energy blockade that is paralyzing the island's fragile economy. For many Cubans, the latest geopolitical standoff feels like a familiar chapter in a decades-long conflict—but analysts warn the risk is now higher following the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Fuel Blockade Cripples Daily Life

On Jan. 29, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on any country supplying Cuba with oil. The measure primarily targets Mexico, Cuba's main supplier after Venezuela, which halted shipments under US pressure. Cuba has received just 84,900 barrels of oil all year—over 3,000 barrels per day, down sharply from 37,000 daily in 2025. President Miguel Díaz-Canel describes it as an "energy blockade" disrupting transportation, hospitals, schools, and food production. Nighttime light levels in eastern cities like Santiago de Cuba have dropped 50%, while blackouts now last 12-20 hours daily, according to residents. Canada's largest airline suspended flights until May, stranding 3,000 tourists.

War Preparations and Regional Context

Cuban authorities have declared a "state of preparation for war," with the Revolutionary Armed Forces beginning wartime preparations. The move follows Trump's warning to "make a deal" before it's "too late" and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's Senate testimony that the White House "would love to see the regime there change." The capture of Maduro signaled Washington's willingness to use force against regional adversaries, raising concerns Cuba could be next. Pope Leo XIV has appealed for peace, but a Cuban Foreign Ministry official told Anadolu: "There is one party that doesn't agree."

International Support Falls Short

Havana is seeking to diversify partners after losing Venezuelan oil. Russia has pledged fuel shipments, China approved $80 million in emergency aid and 60,000 tons of rice, and both offer diplomatic backing. However, CIDOB senior research fellow Anna Ayuso told Anadolu neither country "is willing to directly confront the US oil blockade" with sufficient supplies. Cooperation is largely symbolic—intelligence sharing and defensive preparation. Cuban journalist Liz Oliva Fernandez said aid "will not solve the problem": "What Cuba needs... is for the US to leave us alone."