Climate change raises heat risks for 49 World Cup matches, study finds
Climate Central analysis shows that temperatures above the performance-affecting threshold of 28°C are at least 50% likely in 49 of the 104 World Cup matches. Climate change raises the likelihood by at least 10 percentage points in 26 matches. The Uruguay-Spain match in Guadalajara is most affected. Turkish sports physician warns of health and performance risks.
Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme heat at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to an analysis by Climate Central. The study found that temperatures exceeding the performance-affecting threshold of 28°C (82.4°F) are at least 50% likely in 49 of the tournament’s 104 matches, with climate change raising the probability by at least 10 percentage points in 26 of those matches. The 2026 World Cup will feature 48 teams, including Türkiye, across 16 host cities in the US, Canada, and Mexico. Research shows that temperatures above 28°C can affect player performance, team strategies, and styles of play.
Most affected matches
The match most affected by climate change is projected to be Uruguay vs. Spain on June 26 in Guadalajara, Mexico, where the probability of temperatures exceeding 28°C is 70%—37 percentage points higher than in a world without climate change. For the Türkiye-United States match at Los Angeles Stadium on June 25, the probability is 49%, with climate change contributing 6 percentage points. For the final in New Jersey on July 19, the probability is 47%, compared with 30% without climate change. Miami and Mexico City have seen seven times as many extremely hot June-July days in the past decade compared with their earlier hosting periods.
Health and performance impacts
Prof. Dr. Abdullah Yener Ince, an orthopedics and traumatology specialist at Acibadem Maslak Hospital in Istanbul, told Anadolu that rising temperatures must be assessed in terms of both player health and performance. He noted that players lose more fluid, heart rates rise, and recovery becomes more difficult. “Sustaining high-intensity running in the latter stages of matches becomes harder. At a certain point, the body focuses on cooling itself rather than performance,” he said. He added that hot weather can affect high-tempo playing styles and change match outcomes. Teams are now incorporating heat acclimatization into their pre-tournament plans.
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