Israeli opposition leads Netanyahu bloc by 18 seats in poll

Israeli opposition parties would win 67 seats in the 120-member Knesset compared with 49 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, according to a Channel 12 survey published Monday ahead of elections scheduled for October 27. The poll projected 54 seats for Zionist parties opposed to Netanyahu and 13 for Arab parties, while a grouping the channel described as the “third bloc” would secure four seats.

A parliamentary majority of at least 61 seats is required to form a government in Israel. The survey was conducted on October 12 among a representative sample of 509 people aged 18 and older, with a maximum margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Party standings

Former army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party led the survey with 23 seats, followed by Netanyahu’s Likud with 20, down one seat from the channel’s previous poll. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad party retained 13 seats, while Yair Golan’s Democrats and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu each received nine.

The Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, was projected to win eight seats, matching Aryeh Deri’s ultra-Orthodox Shas party and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party. United Torah Judaism, led by Yaakov Asher, received seven seats, while the Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin secured six.

Mansour Abbas’ United Arab List received five seats, bringing the combined representation of Arab lists to 13. The joint Reservists-Economic party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha received four seats.

Prime ministerial preferences

On suitability for prime minister, Eisenkot led Netanyahu by 45 percent to 35 percent, widening his advantage to 10 percentage points from three in the previous survey. Bennett also edged ahead of Netanyahu, receiving 37 percent support compared with the prime minister’s 36 percent.

Netanyahu led Avigdor Lieberman by 35 percent to 27 percent, although the gap narrowed to eight percentage points from 17 in the previous survey. Channel 12 noted that around 8 percent of respondents had yet to decide whom they would vote for.

Coalition background

Netanyahu has headed the current government since late December 2022, leading a coalition widely described as the most right-wing in Israel’s history. The elections are scheduled for October 27, with campaigning intensifying as parties seek to secure the 61 seats required to form a majority government.