Israeli opposition leads Netanyahu bloc by six seats: Poll

Israel's opposition bloc would secure 57 seats in the Knesset compared to 51 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's alliance if general elections were held now, according to a new opinion poll published on Friday by the private Lazar Research Institute, which showed neither camp approaching the 61-seat majority required to form a government.

Bloc standings

The survey, conducted on a random sample of 600 Israelis with a 4.4% margin of error, came just one day after a separate Channel 13 poll showed both camps tied at 53 seats each. The results highlight the volatile nature of the electoral landscape five weeks before voters head to the polls on October 27.

Jewish opposition parties gained a six-seat advantage over the incumbent coalition, while Arab lawmakers would capture 12 seats in the 120-member parliament. Both Jewish blocs remain dependent on potential alliances that most opposition leaders have previously refused to consider, according to Israeli daily Maariv.

Party breakdown

Within Netanyahu's camp, the Likud party received 20 seats, while Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power won eight, and the religious parties United Torah Judaism and Shas secured seven each. The far-right Religious Zionism party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, crossed the electoral threshold for the first time since May with five seats, while Your People Israel took four.

The opposition bloc saw Yashar, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leading with 23 seats, followed by Naftali Bennett's Together party with 15. The Democrats under Yair Golan received 10 seats, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu won nine. Among Arab parties, the Joint List received seven seats and Mansour Abbas's Ra'am won five.

Premiership race

Eisenkot and Bennett also maintained leads over Netanyahu in direct matchups for the premiership. Some 48% of respondents preferred Eisenkot against 39% for the incumbent, while Bennett led by four percentage points in a separate head-to-head contest, according to the polling data.

The survey also revealed that 55% of Israelis fear another war with Iran in the near future. Regarding the events of October 2023, 44% said they do not believe there was "internal betrayal," compared with 40% who said they believe there was.

Election context

Israel's general elections are scheduled for October 27 as the country continues its military offensive in Gaza, which has killed more than 73,470 Palestinians since October 2023 according to health authorities. Netanyahu faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for alleged war crimes alongside domestic accusations of authoritarianism and corruption.