Eisenkot's Yashar leads Likud, tops Netanyahu in PM preference: Poll

Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has opened a four-seat lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud ahead of Israel's October 27 election, according to a Channel 13 poll published Wednesday that also shows the former military chief preferred for premier by 48% of respondents against 36% for the incumbent.

Seat projections

The survey gave Yashar 22 seats in the 120-member Knesset against 18 for Likud if elections were held now, while Naftali Bennett's Beyachad and Yair Golan's Democrats would each receive 11 seats. The Joint Arab List, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and United Torah Judaism would each win eight seats, with Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit and Shas taking seven apiece.

The Religious Zionism alliance led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin would take six seats, while Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael and the United Arab List would each receive five. The Hendel-Zelekha alliance would cross the electoral threshold with four seats, though Benny Gantz's Blue and White would fail to enter parliament with less than 1% support.

Coalition arithmetic

The poll put the governing coalition bloc at 51 seats and opposition parties at 52, with Arab parties receiving a combined 13 seats. A government requires the support of at least 61 members of Israel's parliament, leaving both blocs short of a majority without external support.

Government preferences

Asked about their preferred composition of the next government, 31% of respondents backed a broad unity government, while 29% preferred an entirely right-wing government and 25% favored a government formed by opposition parties. The remainder chose other options or said they did not know.

The survey questioned 1,503 people and carried a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

Legal troubles

Netanyahu has headed Israel's current government since December 2022. He is on trial on corruption charges, which he denies, and the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him in November 2024 over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Eisenkot, a former Israeli military chief of staff, has positioned his new party as a centrist alternative to the long-serving premier.