Israel poll shows Netanyahu bloc at 51 seats, opposition 53

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political bloc would win 51 seats in the 120-member Knesset against 53 for the opposition parties, according to an opinion poll published Friday less than a month before Israel's Oct. 27 general election.

Electoral deadlock

The survey conducted by Lazar Research indicated that neither Netanyahu's camp nor the opposition would reach the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government. Maariv reported that Netanyahu's bloc gained two seats compared with the previous survey while the opposition lost two, narrowing the gap between the camps.

Most opposition leaders have stated they will not rely on Arab parties' support to form a coalition, leaving prospects for a governing alliance uncertain. Israel's prime minister is not directly elected — forming a government depends entirely on securing sufficient parliamentary support.

Party projections

Within Netanyahu's camp, his Likud party was projected to win 19 seats, followed by extremist National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power with nine. The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism would each secure seven seats, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism would take five and Ofer Winter's People of Israel party four.

Among opposition parties, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar would win 21 seats, Naftali Bennett's Together 13, Yair Golan's Democrats 10, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beytenu nine. The Joint List was projected to secure seven seats and Mansour Abbas's United Arab List five, while the Reservists party led by Yoaz Hendel would take four.

Security concerns

On questions regarding suitability for prime minister, Eisenkot led Netanyahu by 47 percent to 41 percent, with Bennett also ahead at 45 percent to 41 percent while Netanyahu led Lieberman 44 percent to 39 percent. The poll found that 67 percent of Israelis expressed concern about the possibility of a security incident on the scale of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack, with 43 percent moderately concerned and 24 percent very concerned.

Lazar Research conducted the survey among 602 Israeli adults with a margin of error of four percentage points. The elections are scheduled for Oct. 27.