Ukraine says Russia ‘not winning’ as frontline advance slows

Kyiv cites stalled Russian momentum

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Sunday that current frontline dynamics demonstrate Russia "is not winning and will not win this war," citing open-source data that shows Moscow’s average pace of advance in 2026 has slowed to 3.5 times below last year’s rate.

The minister stated that Russian forces have seized less than 0.2% of additional Ukrainian territory this year, while the net balance between Moscow’s gains and Kyiv’s recaptures stood at roughly five square kilometers in August. He added that Ukrainian forces conducted a record 70 successful long-range strikes against legitimate military targets inside Russia during the same month — five more than the previous annual high — in response to continued attacks.

Heavy losses in Donbas

Sybiha reported that Russian military casualties reached 42,000 killed or wounded in August, calling the toll "one of the highest monthly casualty rates of the war." Addressing the concentrated fighting in Donbas, he said Moscow has failed to achieve an operational breakthrough and still lacks control over 20% of the Donetsk region despite dedicating the bulk of its forces there.

"At its current pace, it would take the Russian occupiers over two years to capture that remaining land," Sybiha said, posting the assessment on the social media platform X. He argued that Russia’s economic strains and its inability to counter Ukraine’s long-range capabilities would only worsen the situation for Moscow.

Moscow disputes assessment

While conceding that victory would prove difficult for Ukraine, Sybiha insisted that the Kremlin "is not in a strong position either" and remains unable to dictate terms for any settlement. "Whatever fabricated maps Russian generals present to Putin, the reality on the ground shows that he is not winning and will not win this war," he said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered a starkly different assessment on Tuesday, telling reporters that his forces were increasing the pace of their advance. Putin claimed that Russian troops had seized 270 square kilometers of territory and 15 settlements in the Donetsk region during August alone.