Carney examined 'extreme tail risk' of US military action

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government has examined the possibility of US military action against Canada as an "extreme tail risk," noting he maintains frequent communication with President Donald Trump despite deteriorating bilateral trade relations, according to The New York Times.

Risk assessment and diplomatic channels

Speaking to the newspaper on Wednesday, Carney addressed Trump's past suggestions that Canada could become the 51st US state, emphasizing that governments bear responsibility for preparing against unlikely but potentially severe threats. "I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk," he said, declining to detail specific preparations. "That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to."

Despite the trade tensions, Carney indicated that diplomatic lines remain open between Ottawa and Washington, confirming that he and Trump have spoken "frequently," including several times since bilateral trade negotiations collapsed in August. "From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues," he said.

Trade suspension and diversification

Canada suspended the negotiations on Aug. 21 after Carney accused Washington of introducing last-minute terms that Ottawa considered unfair and economically damaging. The breakdown has accelerated Ottawa's efforts to reduce dependence on US technology and suppliers, including plans to diversify away from Elon Musk's Starlink satellite network and a comprehensive review of Canada's planned purchase of 88 US-made F-35 fighter jets.

Carney also outlined plans to deepen economic ties with other countries, including China, while explicitly ruling out closer defense ties with Beijing. The diversification strategy reflects growing concerns in Ottawa about over-reliance on American markets and military hardware amid the ongoing trade dispute.

Future cooperation prospects

Despite the current impasse, Carney said there remains room for a mutually beneficial agreement with Washington, identifying Canadian potash — which accounts for the majority of US imports of the key fertilizer ingredient — as a potential area for cooperation. The comments came after Trump said earlier this week that Washington was pursuing a potash deal with Belarus.

Carney emphasized that Canada will continue seeking greater economic and strategic diversification regardless of the outcome of future US elections. The prime minister indicated that structural changes to North American trade dynamics may outlast the current administration, necessitating long-term adjustments in Ottawa's foreign economic policy.