Will the October 7 dossier spell the end of Netanyahu?

In his UN General Assembly speech, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu tried to put on stage once again the image on which he built his political platform: the indispensable statesman who can protect an Israel "surrounded by enemies" by defying the entire world. However, the fact that he had to return to his country as soon as he finished his speech shows that the political picture—both inside Israel and in the US—is far from encouraging for him. While reports that he had prior knowledge of the October 7 attacks have pushed the pressure in Israel to its peak, his departure from New York without meeting Trump confirmed that he is approaching a critical stage in his political career.

A UN ADDRESS OR AN ELECTION SPEECH?

Netanyahu delivered a harsh speech at the UN General Assembly, as we have come to expect, but those who left the hall in protest showed the international community's isolating stance. Targeting countries that criticize Israel, and particularly Türkiye in the person of President Erdoğan, Netanyahu was in search of a new enemy ahead of the elections. Criticizing Türkiye over its policy on Hamas and Jerusalem, Netanyahu could not hide that he was playing to domestic politics ahead of the October 27 elections.

Although he was aware of the international community's stance against him, he tried to use the UN platform to generate material for domestic politics. Netanyahu, who has presented himself to the Israeli public for years as the guarantor of security, the assurance of strong relations with America, and the best manager of global relations, was aware that this image had been damaged. We will see within a month how much Netanyahu's image as a "heroic leader" defying Israel's regional and global enemies will work, given that he chose to become aggressive rather than repair this reasonably.

HE COULDN'T MEET TRUMP

It is impossible to ignore that Trump preferred to meet with Mayor Mamdani, who did not want Netanyahu in New York, rather than meeting with Netanyahu. Netanyahu's return to Israel without meeting Trump indicates that the White House is also uncomfortable with him, or at least that it is avoiding showing support before the elections. The fact that Netanyahu was forced to offer such excuses—citing the intensity of the election campaign and the Sukkot holiday—indicates how sensitive he is on this matter. It is obvious that it is unrealistic for Trump to declare that he does not recognize his Gaza plan and then expect to meet with him before the elections.

Netanyahu, who throughout a significant part of his political career used his relations with Washington, and especially his closeness to Trump, to the fullest as domestic political material, could not this time get that familiar photo frame with an American president who had made statements of support to save him from judicial investigations. As soon as he returned to Israel, he found himself in the middle of the debate over what he knew before October 7 and why he did not act. It is clear that Trump, who is preparing for a difficult election because of the economic impact of the war with Iran, has no political gain to be had from meeting with Netanyahu right now. Trump must have thought that meeting with Mamdani would be more useful to him in the November elections.

DID HE KNOW ABOUT OCTOBER 7?

The news that has stood out in the American press in recent weeks is that some warnings reached Netanyahu before Hamas's October 7 attack and that he did not take them into account. The Wall Street Journal wrote that Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel warned Israel multiple times, that it reached Netanyahu's office, and that he continued these warnings until two days before the incident. According to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) called Netanyahu directly and told him that Yahya Sinwar was preparing a major operation.

While this news was being discussed, Haaretz recently reported that Netanyahu, who secretly went to the UAE, asked MBZ to deny this news. The fact that no such denial came after this news is also noteworthy, because it appears that at this stage no one wants to help Netanyahu. News that Netanyahu is blaming former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, and that Bar will sue the Prime Minister and demand all the records, shows that the question of whether he knew about October 7 has branched out and grown complicated.

It is not surprising that Netanyahu, for whom what he learned and when regarding the October 7 attacks has become a critical issue, is diverting the target by putting Türkiye on the agenda. His attempt to declare Türkiye an enemy from the UN podium over themes that are hardly new shows that Netanyahu is trying to gain advantage through the rhetoric of external threat, security, and a "besieged Israel." Although he tries to focus the agenda of Israelis and world public opinion on Iran, Türkiye, and external enemies, the October 7 debate and Trump's withholding of open support may be signs that Netanyahu is approaching the end of his political career.