What was discussed during FM Fidan's visit to the UAE?

In the past few days, there have been some critical developments concerning the future of the region. The Chiefs of General Staff of the Mecca Alliance came together in Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu made a secret visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Again in the UAE, representatives of Arab countries, Israel, and the US held a secret meeting. One day after that, Foreign Minister Fidan visited the UAE. What is going on? Let us convey what we have seen.

RIYADH HAS NO SUCH EXPECTATION

The Chiefs of General Staff of the Mecca Alliance met at Riyadh's call (September 25). The meeting was held in a conjuncture where the Houthis, who have seized control in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, intensified their attacks on Saudi Arabia, and forces close to Riyadh in Yemen declared mobilization. Let us keep in mind the questions of "let's see what the alliance will do in its first test," Foreign Minister Fidan's response of "we have only just begun," and the fact that Israel sees an opportunity for normalization with Riyadh in the developments in Yemen while evaluating this conjuncture.

A brief statement was made after the meeting. It was stated that intelligence sharing, military coordination, and developing capability integration were discussed. So what is not written in that statement? We can say this: One. That meeting was called "urgent," but it was in fact a solidarity meeting. Riyadh wanted to give a warning to the Houthis with that photograph featuring the Chiefs of General Staff. Two. Riyadh does not have a request for wide-ranging military support from Türkiye and Pakistan for Yemen (as was written in the international media). There is a request for operational support (air defense, intelligence sharing, military consultancy, etc.) These requests have also begun to be met.

ASSESSMENT OF PREPARATIONS TO ATTACK IRAN

Netanyahu's secret visit to the UAE was also much discussed. It had emerged that the UAE warned the Israeli Prime Minister before the October 7 attack, saying "there could be an attack," and Netanyahu was left in a difficult position domestically ahead of the elections. Despite all the pressure, the UAE did not deny this news. That is why Netanyahu's visit is tied to this development, and it is claimed that he asked Bin Zayed to deny the news. Reasonable. But not sufficient. Netanyahu cannot have gone to the UAE just for this.

It is necessary to pay attention here: Netanyahu accused his "old friend" (Palestinian) Muhammad Dahlan (adviser to UAE President Bin Zayed) as the source of that news. According to Israel, Dahlan had begun to act with Hamas on the Palestinian administration issue and had even produced a joint election list. Until recently, Dahlan meant the UAE. Netanyahu must certainly have said to Bin Zayed, "Warn your adviser." But his main question was probably, "Are we on the same page regarding Palestine?"

But more important than this is the other "multi-participant" secret meeting held after these talks. On the same day in the UAE, officials from ten countries, including Israel, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, came together. It was claimed that they discussed issues such as the Iran threat and strengthening Israel-Gulf relations.

This meeting is not new. The first was held in mid-September. CENTCOM brought the Chiefs of General Staff of Arab countries and Israel around the same table in Germany. In that meeting too, the headings of Hormuz, Iran, and Bab-el-Mandeb were discussed. That day, I had shared this news with a source of mine who is an expert on military matters. He had commented, "If the news is true, this means they will attack Iran." For a few days now, there have been developments supporting this assessment.

Positions have changed in the US-Iran tension. This time, Iran (due to the US economic blockade) is seeking to end the crisis through diplomacy. They presented a new proposal to the US. This time Trump did not accept it. The US President is playing for time. Meanwhile, while a harsh reaction came from Iran to this meeting, the Iranian army announced that "every Iranian who captures an American soldier will be given a reward of 5 billion tumen" (Some interpret this statement as an expectation of an attack.)

Another importance of these multilateral meetings with Gulf countries is this: The US and Israel are reheating the "Abraham Accords," which fell out of circulation with the Gaza genocide. This does not necessarily mean that wide-ranging normalization agreements will be made. However, it is obvious that, at least—initially under the pretext of the Iran threat—a discussion is being held under the security heading.

WHAT WAS DISCUSSED DURING FIDAN'S VISIT?

Minister Fidan's UAE visit drew attention because he went to the country one day after Netanyahu, but it was mostly associated with the S-400 issue. As is known, in the context of debates over the F-35 and CAATSA sanctions, it was claimed that Türkiye would sell its S-400s to a Gulf country. It was also stated that this country was the UAE. We too were hearing discussions about contacts with the UAE on this issue, Russia's warm approach to this formula, the UAE's "concerns" regarding the US, Washington's support for the process by saying "no problem for us," Israel's efforts to block the purchase, and similar matters. This cauldron will hold more water.

I think this visit was mostly about regional issues. Especially regarding Yemen. The most important reason the Houthis took control of Bab-el-Mandeb is the disagreement between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This disagreement led to the Houthis' advance on the ground, allowed Iran to carry the crisis to Bab-el-Mandeb, and at the same time whetted Israel's appetite for the "Abraham Accords."

Melting the ice between Saudi Arabia and the UAE could produce results that affect many headings in the region. I think this is why Minister Fidan went to the UAE. To open the door to a process in which the UAE and Saudi Arabia understand each other better.