Bab al-Mandeb traffic grinds to halt as Yemen conflict escalates

Escalating fighting off Yemen's western coast has brought commercial traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait to a complete halt, creating a twin crisis for global energy markets already strained by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and cutting off a vital artery for Asia-Europe trade.

Houthi territorial gains

The resurgence of conflict since July has redrawn the map of control across western Yemen, as Houthi forces secured the entire province of Hodeidah and pushed westward to capture Mokha, the Hanish archipelago, Mayun island, and the coastal town of Dhubab — all strategically positioned around the strait's entrance. The fall of Mayun island, which sits at the western channel's entrance, has raised security risks to their highest level and effectively closed the waterway to commercial traffic.

Maritime traffic freeze

An average of 33 ships transited the waterway daily before the crisis, but traffic has plummeted 88% with only four vessels passing through in the past 24 hours, according to International Monetary Fund PortWatch data. The passage of oil and chemical tankers has fallen 91% below normal levels, with just one ship recorded in the last day, while container ship traffic has dropped 86% as the few remaining vessels fly the flags of Panama, Singapore, Liberia, and Ethiopia.

Supply chain implications

Saudi Arabia has relied on its East-West Crude Pipeline to bypass the blocked Strait of Hormuz by transporting crude directly to Red Sea ports, but tankers loading at these facilities must still transit the Bab al-Mandeb to reach global markets. Blockading the strait threatens to nullify that alternative route entirely and could trigger a new wave of global oil shocks, analysts said, even as shippers divert vessels around the Cape of Good Hope at sharply higher cost.