Israel poll shows Eisenkot leading Netanyahu by 9 points

Israeli opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot leads Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by nine percentage points in voter preference for prime minister, according to a Channel 13 poll released Tuesday. The survey found 45% of respondents viewed Eisenkot as better suited for the office, compared with 36% for the incumbent. The poll was conducted among 886 respondents with a margin of error of 3.3%.

Seat projections favor Netanyahu's bloc

Despite Eisenkot's personal advantage, Netanyahu's right-wing bloc would win 54 seats in the 120-member Knesset against 52 for Jewish opposition parties if elections were held today, the poll indicated. Arab parties would secure 14 seats, leaving neither camp with the 61-seat majority required to form a government without external support. The findings mark a shift from recent surveys that had shown the opposition ahead in seat projections.

Party-by-party breakdown

Within Netanyahu's coalition, Likud would receive 18 seats, while the alliance between Religious Zionism and Zehut would secure eight, matching the total for Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit. Shas and United Torah Judaism would each win seven seats, with Amcha Yisrael receiving six. On the opposition side, Eisenkot's Yashar party would win 22 seats, followed by Naftali Bennett's Together party with 12 and Yair Golan's Democrats with 10.

Legal challenges ahead of vote

Israel is scheduled to hold general elections on October 27, with Netanyahu seeking to extend his coalition's mandate amid mounting legal challenges. The prime minister faces corruption charges that could result in imprisonment if convicted, alongside an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. Opposition leaders have rejected relying on Arab parties to form a government, though the math suggests neither bloc can reach the threshold without them.