Russian attack on NATO 'highly unlikely' but possible: Denmark

Denmark's Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) said Thursday it has detected no indications that Moscow is preparing a full-scale invasion of NATO territory, though the agency stressed such a scenario nonetheless "cannot be ruled out." The assessment noted that Russian forces would require at least six months to build up capabilities for a major offensive, adding that an outright invasion remains "highly unlikely" despite the intensifying conflict in Ukraine.

Limited strike scenarios

The Copenhagen-based agency distinguished between large-scale invasion and contained operations, warning of a "low but growing risk" that the Kremlin could authorize limited attacks against NATO members sharing a border with Russia. Such operations could materialize in the coming months even as fighting continues in Ukraine, potentially taking the form of strikes on infrastructure supporting Kyiv, "false flag" operations involving Ukrainian-made drones, or small troop deployments without national insignia.

Hybrid campaign escalation

DDIS also expects Moscow to intensify hybrid warfare efforts against the alliance, with future operations likely to include destructive cyberattacks targeting essential services and sabotage that carries a risk of casualties. The intelligence service highlighted that these asymmetric tactics represent an increasingly probable vector as direct military engagement remains improbable.

Alliance cohesion risks

The assessment raised concerns regarding NATO's collective response capabilities, observing that Russia may gamble the alliance will not react as a unified bloc—particularly if Moscow assesses Washington cannot or will not extend military support to European members. The report was released Thursday as NATO continues reinforcing its eastern flank amid sustained tensions with the Kremlin.