Israeli opposition leads Netanyahu bloc by 4 seats: Poll

Israel's opposition parties would win 54 seats in the Knesset against 50 for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition if elections were held today, according to a late Tuesday poll by Channel 12. Neither grouping would attain the 61-seat majority required to form a government, while Arab parties would capture 12 seats, according to the survey of 2,498 respondents conducted by the Sample research firm with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Eisenkot's Yashar party would become the largest faction with 23 seats, trailed by Netanyahu's Likud with 20. Bennett's Together party would take 13 seats, while both the Democrats under Yair Golan and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu would win nine each. Together, these opposition parties would hold 54 seats.

Coalition breakdown

Netanyahu's allies would include United Torah Judaism with eight seats, Shas with seven, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit with six, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism with five, and the Reservists-New Economic Party of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha with four. Along with Likud's 20 seats, the bloc would total 50. Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael party would win four seats.

Election context

A total of 38 lists have registered to contest the upcoming Knesset elections scheduled for Oct. 27 — when 13 are expected to win parliamentary representation — while Arab parties would secure 12 seats, including seven for the Joint List and five for the Ra'am party led by Mansour Abbas. In a separate survey question on preferred prime minister, Eisenkot garnered 41% against 38% for Netanyahu. Netanyahu has led the current government since December 2022 while battling corruption charges, and the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for him over alleged war crimes in the Gaza Strip.