What do October 2026 inflation forecasts say?

With the inflation data to be announced tomorrow for October 2026, we will have entered the last two months for the inflation figure that will materialize for the whole year.

The inflation rate that will materialize over the full year serves as a reference for many variables, primarily civil servant and pensioner salary increases, and is an important indicator in determining the Central Bank's interest rate policy and inflation expectations for the new year.

PAST MONTHLY AND ANNUAL INFLATION RATES

While high monthly rates were seen at the start of 2026, at 4.84 percent in January and 4.18 percent in April, due to the effect of tax updates and price adjustments, a visible slowdown in the pace of monthly inflation increases has been observed, especially from the summer months onward.

On the other hand, with the 1.84 percent monthly increase in September, annual inflation fell to 29.73, dropping below the psychological threshold of 30 percent for the first time in about 5 years.

In the first nine months of 2026 (January-September), annual inflation followed a disinflation process in the 29.73 to 32.61 percent band.

THE DIFFICULTIES OF OCTOBER

On the disinflation path, October is one of the most critical stops of 2026.

Because October is a month in which the upward tendency in inflation becomes more pronounced.

In October, inflation is expected to be high due to education expenditures with the start of the new school year and price adjustments in the clothing/footwear group tied to the seasonal transition, the increase in food prices as the summer months pass, and inertia in the services sector.

WHAT DO INFLATION EXPECTATIONS POINT TO?

According to market expectations, monthly inflation in October is projected to materialize in the 2.0 to 2.5 percent band.

According to the AA Finans expectation survey, the average of October monthly inflation expectations is 2.20 percent, while annual inflation, which materialized at 29.73 percent in September, is expected to fall to 29.28 percent in October.

On the other hand, according to the AA Finans expectation survey, the average of year-end inflation expectations was 29.64 percent.

Although these figures are low, they show that the downward trend in annual inflation continues.

Therefore, as we enter the last two months of 2026, the data to be announced for the final months are very important for the continuation of the disinflation process and for reaching the targeted inflation figures, in order to preserve the gains achieved at high economic and social costs.