The latest on the U.S. midterm elections: will Michigan elect its first Muslim senator?

With days left until the November 3 elections, the latest polls show that the Democrats could seize control of both chambers of Congress. While control of the House of Representatives is seen as certain to pass to the Democrats, taking control of the Senate appears possible but not easy. Across the country, 39 million voters have cast their ballots so far, of whom 47 percent are registered Democrats, 35 percent Republicans, and the rest independents. These statistics and record turnout rates in many states show that Democratic voter motivation is high, while Republicans' turnout on election day is expected to play a critical role. It will only be possible to understand on election day how effective President Trump's efforts to motivate voters in Republican states have been, given his quite low nationwide popularity. If he can persuade his own base in the critical states and bring them to the polls, it is possible for the Republicans to at least retain control of the Senate.

Will Michigan elect its first Muslim senator?

Polls in Michigan show the Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed ahead of the Republican candidate Mike Rogers by a margin of around 3 percent. The race in Michigan, along with the race in Texas, has witnessed the most prominent campaign of this election cycle. El-Sayed, who has also been subjected to Trump's Islamophobic attacks in recent days, is the candidate of the progressive wing but has also drawn centrist Democrats to his side by receiving the support of Obama and Kamala Harris. Having managed to raise his support within the Democratic Party to 95 percent, El-Sayed succeeds in giving extremely comfortable and strong messages before the national media with his confident rhetoric, directly targeting Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance. The success of El-Sayed, who would become the country's first Muslim senator if elected, is indispensable for the Democrats to capture the Senate majority.

Do the Democrats stand a chance in Texas?

The state of Texas has not elected a Democratic senator for more than thirty years, and winning this state would be a very great political victory for the Democrats. Democrat James Talarico appears ahead of his Republican rival Ken Paxton by a margin of around 2.7 percent in the polls. Talarico's favorability among Republican voters far exceeds that of Paxton's among Democrats. The fact that Talarico, despite being a Democrat, is in this position in Texas, which is considered a Republican stronghold, is also a result of Trump supporting a candidate like Paxton, who has low popularity among Republicans. If Talarico can break Republican dominance in Texas, he will show, in particular, that Trumpist politics can harm traditional Republican politics. If he succeeds, Talarico's relatively conservative profile could send the message that the dynamism of the progressive wing of the Democrats is not enough to win general elections and that centrist candidates should be preferred in Republican states like Texas.

Is a Senate majority possible?

Even if the Democrats win both Michigan and Texas, they need to win two more of the five states that appear critical for the Republicans. These are states like Maine, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, which either Trump wins comfortably or are leaning Republican. Republican voters going to the polls on election day so that the Democrats do not win, or under the influence of Trump's campaign, will make the Democrats' job even harder. In Maine, Republican Susan Collins' chances have improved as a result of the previous Democratic candidate falling victim to a scandal. Collins, whose favorability among Democrats is also not very bad, presents a relatively more independent profile because she has at times diverged from Trump, but there are also those who criticize her for being too close to Trump or for not taking a harsher stance. In Maine, one of the states where gasoline prices and inflation have a greater impact because of its agricultural economy, the Democrats' job appears difficult despite these advantages.

In Alaska, the name similarity between an activist independent candidate and the Republican candidate could result in the election results being taken to court. The Republicans are already preparing for litigation, and if the results favor the Democrats, it could end up in court. If the seat that determines the Senate majority turns out to be Alaska, things could get even more complicated, and Trump could refuse to accept the election results, as he did in the 2020 election. Of course, for this point to be reached, the Democrats need to win Michigan, Texas, and Maine. The scenario in which they win the Senate majority would mean a great victory described as a "Democratic wave," and Trump's last two years would be quite difficult. Both the argument that Trumpist politics has set the Republicans back and the politics of the post-Trump era would sit at the top of the discussion agenda. The Democrats will try to use their congressional dominance both to limit the Trump administration's room for maneuver and by submitting bills aimed at realizing their own agenda.

In the case where the Democrats do not win the Senate majority, Trump's job will be easier, since it will hardly be possible to conduct a serious investigation against him. The Democrats holding only the lower chamber of Congress could cause them to turn to a strategy of trying to negotiate with Trump by preparing bills that would please Democratic voters, rather than dealing with the Trump administration. In the scenario where both chambers pass to the Democrats, it could mean that bills would pass through Congress and go to Trump's desk, and Trump would be forced to use his veto power. In a context where the possibility of being surrounded by investigations is high, a scenario could emerge in which Trump plays defense.

The election polls show the Democrats as advantaged, but it must not be forgotten that in critical states, polls may not reflect Republican vote banks. We will see on election day how great the dissatisfaction with Trump is among the Trumpist base, which does not respond to polls and whose voice is not much heard in the media. In this respect, although the Democrats appear advantaged, if they fail to create a great wave, they may have to settle for a majority in the House of Representatives. The November elections, which will also determine the political dynamics of the 2028 presidential election, will go down in history as an election in which America's foreign policy is also influential, because of the effects of the Iran war and the Israel debate. In 2024, the Gaza issue had divided the Democrats; in 2026, the question of how far the Iran issue has pushed Republicans away from Trump stands out as a critical factor.