A new and dangerous situation has emerged in the Black Sea

Striking developments that would normally take a decade are being squeezed into a few days. For example, the Libyan House of Representatives approved the agreement signed with Türkiye in 2019. Its repercussions continue. The EU is reacting. So is Egypt. But the hardest part is for Greece. Frankly, they don't know what to do. There is an intense debate at home. In the previous article, we wrote that they might enter into an effort to raise the tension in order to escape this squeeze.

At least as important as this (a few days after the parliament's approval) is the bringing together of the relevant parties in Ankara within the scope of efforts to unite the east and west of Libya (a single Libya). In fact, it had been said in the corridors for some time that important news would come from Libya (regarding the establishment of the country's unity). This meeting is the first stage of the "important news." Although some progress has been made, no final result emerged from the Saddam Haftar and Abdulsalam Zubi meeting. It will take some time, but they are on the right track.

WHAT DOES KALIN'S SURPRISE VISIT SIGNAL?

On the other hand, developments regarding the Mecca Alliance continue. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have completed their internal approval processes. On the Turkish side, the agreement will come to the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Grand National Assembly today. Meanwhile, the Houthis have intensified their attacks on Saudi Arabia. The Mecca Alliance's job is to provide defense support to Saudi Arabia. It has been underlined many times in official statements: Turkish soldiers will not go there to fight the Houthis.

However, this is a difficult equation. Yemen is the second front of the US-Iran war. With the start of the conflict in Yemen, the main front of the war was pushed into the background. But the waters are warming there again too. While a large Israeli fleet approaches the Iranian border and conducts test flights several times, the Israeli army is carrying out an exercise inside the country "against multi-directional attacks." Ahead of today's Israeli elections, no chaos that would strengthen Netanyahu's hand has (yet) occurred. However, developments are raising the concern that uncertainty and conflicts will deepen both in Iran and in Yemen after the November 3 US midterm elections. I interpreted yesterday's surprise Tehran visit by MİT Director Kalın and senior officials from Pakistan and Saudi Arabia (the intelligence dimension of the alliance) as "a move to prevent what is to come and to persuade Tehran." In terms of both the Iran and Yemen fronts.

AID REQUEST FROM NATO

Because of all these major developments, we are not giving due attention to something: The war in Ukraine, right to our north, has reached the shores of our neighbor Bulgaria. This month, four ships were struck by drones in Bulgaria's Exclusive Economic Zone, two of them sank. This is a situation we are familiar with from previous attacks targeting Turkish-owned ships. But this time there is a new situation that should draw Türkiye's attention more: Bulgaria has requested aid from NATO due to the attacks (assessed to be of Russian origin). This request covers "missile systems, anti-UAV defense systems, and air patrols" (that is, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and radar systems).

Türkiye is a NATO member. NATO's contribution to the security of Bulgaria and Romania is a step Ankara also supports. However, Ankara has certain sensitivities regarding the Black Sea that go beyond NATO membership: Türkiye argues that security in the Black Sea should be provided only by riparian countries within the framework of the principle of regional ownership. And it implements this policy strongly. As you know… For a long time, countries like the US and France have sought to show a presence in the Black Sea. But Ankara does not allow this. The Montreux Convention is its strongest basis on this point.

NATO's support to Bulgaria and Romania is limited to reconnaissance, surveillance, and air defense systems to be provided from land and air. Support with naval elements is not on the agenda. Indeed, officials in Ankara give a clear message, saying, "We will not allow naval elements to be brought in." In other words, no concession on Montreux. NATO knows this sensitivity too. But what is obvious needs no guide: As conflicts in the Black Sea deepen, as they move southward, as navigational security is threatened, this issue will be heated up again and again and brought before us again and again. Therefore, a solution must absolutely be produced for the mutual attacks in the Black Sea.

WILL THE NEGOTIATIONS PRODUCE A RESULT?

The current negotiation traffic may lead to interpretations that conflicts in the Black Sea will not deepen. Trump's Special Representative S. Witkoff met with Zelensky and his European counterparts in Oslo on October 20. The next day he flew to Russia and met with Putin. In those talks, two issues that have not been agreed upon since the Istanbul negotiations were discussed: How will the territorial exchange take place? What security guarantees will be given to Ukraine? In addition to this, another major issue was on the table: How will Russia-Europe relations and the new security architecture be defined? Within this scope, trilateral US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations (at the technical level) are expected to be held in Abu Dhabi next month.

Russia is not accepting either a ceasefire or an agreement until it gets what it wants (the pieces of Ukrainian territory it designated as targets on the first day of the war). Trump is trying to subdue Ukraine to end the war (and is using Ukraine as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Putin). Zelensky, meanwhile, opposes Moscow's maximalist demands (Note: Despite Trump, he has ordered his army to carry out a thousand-drone attack every day deep into Russia, against its energy infrastructure). If the Russians can address Europe's security concerns, Ukraine, which is in danger of losing US support, may not be able to see Europe on its side either. However, UK Defense Secretary Streeting's remark that "we need to be ready for a possible war by 2030" shows that the European wing's head is confused. Therefore, this cauldron will hold more water. So pay attention to the Black Sea!