Türkiye targets $2.2T economy, single-digit inflation by 2029

Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz on Wednesday unveiled Türkiye's 2027–2029 Medium-Term Program at the Presidential Complex in Ankara, setting targets to expand the economy to $2.2 trillion and bring inflation back to single digits by the end of the decade. The roadmap, presented alongside Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek and Strategy and Budget Head Ibrahim Senel, projects annual growth rising to 5% by 2029 and per-capita income reaching $25,000.

Growth and inflation targets

The program builds on macroeconomic gains achieved since 2023, projecting growth strengthening gradually from 3.3% in 2026 to 4.2% in 2027, 4.6% in 2028 and 5% in 2029. National income is expected to exceed $1.8 trillion by year-end 2026 — with per-capita income surpassing $20,000 for the first time — before hitting the $2.2 trillion mark three years later. "That will be the first time we exceed the $2-trillion threshold," Yilmaz said, adding that the government expects year-end inflation at 28.4% in 2026 before it slows to single digits by 2029.

External balances and reserves

Weaker external demand and higher commodity prices have forced revisions to 2026 projections, with the assumed Brent crude price raised to $89.3 per barrel from $64.3 and the energy import bill revised upward to $71 billion. The trade deficit is now expected at $105 billion while the current account deficit forecast was raised to 2.6% of GDP from 1.3%, though Yilmaz described the deterioration as temporary. "Our current account deficit is well below our historical averages, and we believe that it will continue to be so in the coming years," he said, noting the share of Turkish lira deposits has nearly doubled over the past three years while FX-protected deposits were eliminated.

"Foreign-exchange-protected deposits, which were a very important contingent liability for the Turkish economy, are now at zero," Yilmaz said, explaining that gross reserves rose from $98.5 billion in May 2023 to $188.2 billion as of late August 2026. The program aims to create 2.1 million additional jobs through 2029 — roughly 700,000 annually — reducing unemployment below 8% through labor market reforms targeting youth, women and people with disabilities. Türkiye will host COP31 in Antalya this year, with green transition goals designed to reduce fossil fuel imports and bolster macroeconomic stability alongside the country's climate objectives.