By 2100, minister warns Türkiye could lose 25% of water resources

Water risks linked to climate change

Agriculture and Forestry Minister Ibrahim Yumakli warned Thursday that Türkiye could lose around a quarter of its available water resources by the end of the century because of climate change, calling for greater investment in climate adaptation and water management.

Speaking at the COP31 UN climate summit in the southern province of Antalya, Yumakli said rising temperatures and increased evaporation could severely affect the country’s water supplies, agricultural production and food security. “Our approach is clear: We must manage risks in advance rather than respond to crises,” he said.

Glaciers and water security

Yumakli addressed a high-level meeting on glacier protection, climate resilience and sustainable financing at the 31st UN Climate Change Conference, or COP31, organized by Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, Pakistan and Bhutan.

Senior officials from several countries, including Azerbaijan, Armenia and Lesotho, attended the meeting alongside Asian Development Bank President Masato Kanda. Yumakli stressed that the future of glaciers concerned more than mountainous regions, directly affecting the livelihoods of millions of people.

He warned that rising global temperatures could produce long-lasting and, in some cases, irreversible effects on glaciers and other parts of the cryosphere, which includes Earth’s frozen components such as snow, ice and permafrost. Snow and ice reserves in mountainous regions regulate river flows, help ensure seasonal water availability, and support agriculture and ecosystems, he added.

Türkiye’s water projections

Türkiye’s location in the Mediterranean Basin makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change, Yumakli said. “Through scientific studies conducted in 25 river basins across our country, we assessed the potential impacts of climate change on water resources through 2100,” he said.

“Our projections show that average temperatures could rise by up to 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit).” Combined with increased evaporation, this projected warming could reduce Türkiye’s annual available water resources by around 25% toward the end of the century, he warned.

Yumakli described access to clean water as a matter of survival and said Türkiye had begun implementing its National Water Plan for 2026-2035 to improve water efficiency and strengthen climate preparedness.

More than $1.4B in water projects

Protecting mountain ecosystems requires sustainable financing to turn scientific knowledge, technology and planning into concrete investments, Yumakli said. He identified glacier monitoring, improved water availability assessments, hydrological modeling, and stronger forecasting and early warning systems as priority investment areas.

Türkiye is using public funding, grants, loans, public-private partnerships and international financial institutions to support climate adaptation and water management, he said. Ongoing initiatives include an $819 million irrigation modernization and water efficiency project implemented with the World Bank, along with a $600 million flood and drought management project.

Yumakli also highlighted the private sector’s role in improving climate resilience and water efficiency, noting that state-owned Ziraat Bank offers loans and interest subsidies for eligible investments in pressurized irrigation systems. He described COP31 as an opportunity to turn climate commitments into action and called for stronger international cooperation and shared responsibility, saying, “Let us not forget that protecting glaciers means protecting the rivers fed by those mountains, agricultural production, cities and the lives of future generations.”