Eisenkot leads Netanyahu as Israeli blocs deadlock at 53 seats

Former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot has opened a ten-point lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the public's preferred choice for premier, according to a Channel 13 poll published on Thursday that showed both political camps deadlocked at 53 Knesset seats each.

Parliamentary deadlock

The survey, conducted by the Index research center among 940 Israelis with a 4.3% margin of error, showed Netanyahu's right-wing bloc and the opposition alliance each securing 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset — eight short of the 61 required to form a government. Arab parties captured 14 seats, leaving both mainstream camps dependent on external support to reach a majority.

Channel 13 described the results as reflecting a "dramatic tie in the bloc map," noting that without backing from Arab lawmakers, Israel could face yet another election cycle with the current coalition remaining in caretaker capacity indefinitely.

Shift in momentum

The figures mark a significant tightening from the previous week, when the same polling outfit had given the opposition 57 seats against 48 for Netanyahu-aligned parties. The far-right Your People Israel party, led by former general Ofer Winter, entered the fray with four seats, while Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism faction secured six — drawing support from right-wing voters.

Meanwhile, the Joint Arab List comprising Hadash, the Arab Movement for Renewal and Balad secured nine seats, weakening the opposition's ability to block Netanyahu. Likud narrowed its deficit against Eisenkot's Yashar party to a single seat, rising to 21 against Yashar's 22.

Bloc breakdowns

Netanyahu's camp comprises Likud with 21 seats, United Torah Judaism with eight, Shas with seven, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power with seven, Religious Zionism with six, and Winter's Your People Israel with four. The opposition bloc includes Yashar's 22 seats, Naftali Bennett's Together party with 12, Yair Golan's Democrats with 11, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu with eight.

Arab representation splits between the Joint Arab List's nine seats and Mansour Abbas's United Arab List with five. The distribution leaves both blocs scrambling to find coalition partners capable of crossing the 61-seat threshold.

Election context

On the question of preferred prime minister, 47% of respondents named Eisenkot against 37% for Netanyahu, maintaining the former general's consistent lead in recent months. The gap underscores the premier's weakened political standing as he faces corruption trials and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over alleged war crimes in Gaza.

Israelis are scheduled to return to the polls on October 27 in a vote widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership. The 76-year-old premier has headed Israel's most right-wing government since December 2022, presiding over military operations that have drawn international scrutiny.