Half of Germans expect Chancellor Merz gone by year-end

Friedrich Merz faces mounting skepticism about his political survival less than six months into his chancellorship, with nearly half of German voters predicting he will leave office before the year ends. The representative YouGov survey published late Thursday found 48% of respondents said they did not expect the chancellor to remain in his post through December, while 31% believed he would stay and 21% remained undecided. The findings landed just days before voters in the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the city-state of Berlin head to the polls on Sunday.

CDU faces losses in regional races

The conservative CDU is heading for heavy losses in both contests according to the latest surveys, compounding a major defeat earlier this month in Saxony-Anhalt where the right-wing AfD finished first with 43.8% against the CDU's 17.2%. In Berlin, the CDU has slipped to around 20% support, down from 28.2% in the 2023 election, placing it behind the socialist Left Party at 22% and risking exclusion from the capital's next government. The situation is even more dire in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the CDU is polling at just 6% — barely above the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament — while the center-left SPD leads at 37% and the AfD sits at 36%.

Party meets amid leadership speculation

Merz's weak performance since taking office has intensified pressure within his party to consider a leadership change, with senior CDU figures planning an internal meeting on Monday to assess the results. Lawmakers from the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, are due to meet two days later in a joint session expected to address the growing concerns. While a change at the top of the party would not automatically dissolve the Bundestag or trigger fresh national elections, the chamber could elect a new chancellor without a nationwide vote should party pressure force Merz to step aside.