Israel election: Four scenarios as polls predict deadlock

Israel will hold parliamentary elections on October 27 in a contest that remains too close to call, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition and the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot polling neck and neck at roughly 50 to 52 seats each. The country's proportional representation system makes it highly unlikely that any single party will secure the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, virtually guaranteeing weeks of intense coalition negotiations after the vote. President Isaac Herzog will face the complex task of designating a candidate to form a government from among the fragmented parties vying for power.

Coalition calculus

Herzog will consult party representatives after the official results are announced and designate a candidate to form a government — not necessarily the leader of the largest party, but the one deemed most capable of securing a parliamentary majority through negotiation. The process can prove arduous and lengthy, with parties insisting on parochial interests and demanding key ministerial portfolios as the price of their support, often producing unstable administrations vulnerable to crisis. Following the November 2022 election, Netanyahu required 58 days to assemble his coalition, and Israeli political history is full of twists and turns, with defections and unexpected shifts in alliances potentially altering the parliamentary arithmetic at any moment.

Minority government

If neither major bloc reaches the 61-seat threshold required for a majority, lawmakers could attempt to govern through ad hoc support from other legislators, potentially relying on Israel's Arab minority parties who make up 20 percent of the population and generally identify as Palestinians. Polls suggest the Joint List and Raam could capture 12 to 14 seats combined, with Raam leader Mansour Abbas saying his party would consider supporting Eisenkot's bloc while the Joint List has offered to provide a "safety net" for any coalition ousting Netanyahu. Opposition leaders remain reluctant to publicly acknowledge such arrangements due to hostility among segments of the Jewish electorate toward alliances with Arab parties, though Netanyahu has campaigned aggressively against this possibility with the slogan: "Either the right wing or Palestine."

National unity

A national unity government excluding both Netanyahu's provocative far-right allies and the ultra-Orthodox parties while also shutting out Arab parties could theoretically emerge, creating a less extreme administration centered on security consensus. Netanyahu and Eisenkot share similar views on defense issues despite their political rivalry, and a poll published on October 16 found that 55 percent of Israelis would prefer such a grand coalition over returning to the polls. Herzog is reportedly working behind the scenes to bring the two leaders together to repeat the 2020 power-sharing experiment between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, though the opposition bloc has treated the current election as a referendum against Netanyahu's character and questioned his fitness for office.

Fifth election in five years?

Should all coalition efforts fail, Israel would face new elections — a scenario that played out four times between April 2019 and March 2021 as politicians proved unable to forge lasting governments amid persistent deadlock. The president's designated candidate will have 28 days to form a government, extendable by 14 days, though procedural mechanisms could delay an immediate return to the polls if negotiations continue. Between 2019 and 2021, the country held four elections due to the inability of politicians to build stable coalitions, with Netanyahu and Benny Gantz briefly sharing power in 2020 before that partnership collapsed within a year and triggered the cycle of instability that has defined recent Israeli politics.