Qatar warns Gulf stability 'no longer' guaranteed amid US-Iran war

Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed Al Ansari warned on Monday that long-standing assumptions about Gulf stability have shattered amid the ongoing US-Iran war, telling regional leaders that the era of guaranteed security has ended. Speaking at the third Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi, Al Ansari said recent developments had permanently altered perceptions of the Gulf as an "oasis of stability." "We cannot take for granted the fact that this region will be the oasis of stability. That is no longer the reality," he said, adding that Gulf nations must actively work to ensure the region remains stable rather than accept current conditions as permanent.

Economic interdependence

Al Ansari stated that any mediation between Washington and Tehran would prove temporary unless paired with deeper economic integration across the region. "Any solution, any deal that is signed, any mediation that will take place, nothing will happen beyond freezing the conflict unless there is real economic interdependency in the region, where the decision to disrupt our economies means disrupting your economy," he said. He noted that Gulf economies remain largely isolated from one another despite shared strategic interests, calling for an end to "siloed" economic policies.

Broken taboos

Turning to the Strait of Hormuz, Al Ansari warned that the waterway's closure had broken a long-standing taboo against weaponizing international shipping lanes while threatening to normalize instability as a "new normal." "We might see it at a later stage in other straits around the world, in other waterways around the world, because the taboo has been broken," he said. He added that similar disruptions had already emerged in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, warning that such challenges pose broader threats to international security beyond immediate economic concerns.

Resilience and unity

Al Ansari reported that Gulf states had demonstrated significant resilience during the crisis, with authorities claiming more than 90% of attacks against the region had been deterred. He said no Gulf country had been forced to tap strategic reserves, and governments had maintained energy supplies to international markets throughout the conflict, even as Al Ansari called for Gulf states to strengthen their diplomatic messaging and "speak with one voice" on the world stage. The forum convened in the UAE capital under the theme "Gulf at Crossroads: Conflict, Consequences and Course Correction," co-organized by the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research alongside the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy.