Trump endorsement could cut both ways for Netanyahu

US President Donald Trump on Sunday renewed his public endorsement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, calling him a "Great Warrior Prime Minister" on Truth Social and linking his leadership to Washington's campaign against Iran. The intervention comes as polls suggested the Likud-led bloc could struggle to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in Tuesday's vote for the 120-member Knesset.

Analysts divided over electoral impact

Israeli analyst Ahron Bregman said Trump's intervention was unlikely to significantly influence Tuesday's outcome, describing it as a "desperate attempt by Netanyahu, who begged Trump to give him an endorsement, to get some support from his friend," following reports that the prime minister had pressed Washington for specific language. "Trump's pledge will have little impact on the Israeli voters," Bregman said, warning that "Trump's endorsement might even cause damage to Netanyahu, as many Israeli voters, including from Likud, hate this external intervention in domestic Israeli politics."

Ryan Bohl, a senior analyst at the RANE Network, said the endorsement could prove decisive in Israel's fractious political environment even if it changes few minds. "I don't think it'll change too many minds that are already made up," Bohl said, "but Israel is such a fractious political environment, you don't need to change that many minds for it to necessarily be a decisive outcome." He suggested Trump's backing could discourage traditional Likud voters from defecting to rival right-wing parties and strengthen Netanyahu's hand in post-election coalition negotiations. "I think for the center-right kind of national conservative voters that are traditionally go with Likud, who are getting sick of Netanyahu, I think this is a reminder to them that Netanyahu is, at least for the near term, at least for this presidency, indispensable," he added.

Unusual intervention breaks protocol

The endorsement marks an unusual departure from the longstanding practice of US presidents avoiding explicit support for Israeli candidates. "I think it's unusual because American presidents don't usually endorse," Bohl said, describing the move as "very Trumpian" and contrasting it with Vice President JD Vance's refusal to back Netanyahu despite campaigning for Hungary's Viktor Orban, who lost his election despite Trump's support. Bregman questioned the cost of the endorsement, noting "you don't get a free meal from Trump" and speculating that Netanyahu may have pledged to delay any attack on Iran until after the US midterm elections, while Bohl warned that a re-elected Netanyahu could use the relationship to pursue hard-line policies toward Iran and the Palestinians, noting that Israel is becoming "more and more unpopular in the United States."