Not a coalition, an election; but how?

Periodically, I speak to the directors of public opinion survey companies. I follow the surveys conducted. I spoke to the general manager of ANAR, Ibrahim Uslu, Faruk Acar the owner of Andy-Ar and the head of A&G Research Company, Adil Gür.

Two main points affecting the preferences of the voter stand out.

1- The attitude the leaders hold during coalition founding works.

2- Operations directed at the PKK and the atmosphere caused by martyr funerals.

A decrease in the MHP's votes is evident, because of its uncompromising attitude during coalition talks straight after the June 7 elections, and in the HDP's votes because they didn't draw a line between the PKK and themselves.

Until the terror attacks, military operations on the PKK and martyr funerals started to be announced.

The MHP started to re-collect itself after martyr funerals started to come in, while the HDP took a step back after security forces started to conduct operations on the PKK. Don't expect HDP's votes to decrease because they don't condemn the PKK. Kurdish votes constitute 11 percent of HDPs votes and the operations have not caused a decrease in the percentage of voters, contrarily they have come closer. If operations on the PKK aren't segregated from criticism of the HDP, HDP will be pushed towards victimization it really doesn't deserve.

As for AK Party and CHP's votes; there is a visible difference in CHP's votes upon its responsible attitude during the search for a coalition. A one-point increase can be seen in CHP's votes since the June 7 elections. According to four different survey companies, there has been a two-point increase in AK Party votes since June 7. This increase isn't based on the military operations and the martyr funerals, as the perception management operations claim. Quite the contrary, prolonging these military operations carries the risk of damaging AK Party. Because this phase is actually nourishing HDP and the MHP.

Research conducted by four different companies show that the four parties pass the election threshold. There isn't much movement in the votes of any of the parties. How will AK Party come to power alone under these circumstances? Claiming that AK Party wouldn't be able to come to power alone because all four parties have passed the election threshold is too generalizing. At this point of time, a powerful AK Party government cannot be formed with these percentages. The motivation HDP provided to pass the election threshold during the June 7 elections has to be adopted by AK Party, if they want sole power.

AK Party is receiving votes from the Felicity Party and BBP voters who are experiencing worries of instability.

Two points arise when examining the turn towards AK Party.

1- Expecting stability

2- Not being able to found a government without AK Party.

Those who seek stability and those who are affected by the negative outcomes of instability desire a “snap election” and an AK Party government. But is this enough for AK Party to form a government alone?

Today, as the leaders sit at the table, it is important to draw the profiles of a snap election and a coalition for both parties.

A snap election is desired by AK Party the most. A snap election is not desired at all by the CHP.

AK Party is not at all interested in a coalition government. The CHP really wants a coalition to be formed.

Around 75-80 percent of AK Party supporters want a snap election. A snap election seems like a purchased option for AK Party. This rate is about 20 percent for the CHP.

On the other hand, time is running out for a coalition. About 20 percent of AK Party voters desire a coalition, while this rate is 75 percent for CHP voters. The results of research conducted by four different research companies reveal these results. I shared this information, so it can reflect on the Davutoğlu- Kılıçdaroğlu meeting today.

Before today's meeting Davutoğlu said, “Things will become clearer today.” It is obvious steps will be taken today. But will it be enough to bring results? Maybe the two leaders might have to meet a few more times. However, nothing will be totally clear before AK Party meets MHP for a last time. The MHP option would have to be erased from the equation.

During the ceremony held at the presidential palace for Necdet Özel, the chief of staff, President Erdoğan and Prime Minister Davutoğlu put an emphasis on MHP. In fact, President Erdoğan touched on the topic without journalists asking. President Erdoğan indirectly indicated to AK Party that MHP should be tried again. Prime Minister Davutoğlu held the door open to MHP when he was directed such questions.

Just a note at this point.

The President touched upon two important points that would affect the process before the two leaders met.

1-He said it was impossible to stretch the 45-day period.

2- “Your principles should coincide with the opposition's principles. If they don't coincide, you shouldn't commit suicide, should you?” said the president to AK Party before AK Party sat at the table with the CHP. He said he hoped a coalition was formed, but implied that “it is political suicide” to form a coalition with the CHP.

3- Erdoğan said AK Party needed to be supported if it wanted to go to a snap election with a minority government.

AK Party needs support from the parliament to go to a snap election and to form a minority government.

Once again, all eyes are on MHP.

What will Bahçeli decide?

Will he open the way for the process? Will he force AK Party to form a coalition with the CHP or will he put HDP in the minority government (on its way to an election) photo?

The key to an equation without the CHP is in the hands of Bahçeli.

After Bahçeli's speech yesterday, AK Party will have to review its strategy with MHP.

Bahçeli clearly directed AK Party to the CHP and closed the door to an equation with MHP.

With Erdogan's words and Bahçeli's attitude, the Prime Minister's choices have decreased.

Both leaders are sitting at the table under the light of these realities.

Kılıçdaroğlu has made a strong impression with his responsible attitude towards forming a coalition after the June 7 elections. He has been authorized by his party to form a strong government to stay in power for the next four years. Davutoğlu, on the other hand, is doing everything possible to form a coalition. Yet, it won't be happening. If he decides to go to a snap election, no one has the right to condemn him for it.

Will an election change the result? That is unknown.

When I look at the warnings of President Erdoğan and AK Party lobbying, it looks like a snap election is more likely to happen than a coalition.