The end of the Trumpist spell

The picture that emerged in the American congressional elections shows that Trumpism, which promised to end the endless wars along with the socio-economic crises of the lower and middle classes suffering from political exclusion when it first emerged, has been heavily punished for losing touch with the people's priorities. The perception that Trumpist politics, which objected to the legacy of the 2008 economic crisis and the Iraq war, opposed the offshoring of jobs, and promised to secure the borders, has now come to prioritize the interests of the Trump family and the billionaire elites around it, appears to have drawn a heavy backlash from the American people struggling with the cost of living. It is normal for the incumbent power to lose votes in midterms, and that was expected this time too, but in the November 3 elections, every voter group across the country turning away from the Republicans toward the Democrats showed how deeply the disappointment and anger across the country have deepened.

THE ANATOMY OF THE REPUBLICAN DEBACLE

President Trump did not take responsibility for the defeat, as expected, saying that his name was not on the ballot and that things might have been different if it had been. This may be technically true, but politically, every segment of the people turning away from the Republicans shows that Trumpist politics failed across the country and that Republicans who did Trump's bidding were punished. Trump's 2024 election victory was partly a surprise for those who thought populist movements could pass like a straw fire, but the Biden/Harris administration's stance on Israel's genocide had played a critical role. Trump's failure to deliver on his promises to fight inflation and end the endless wars before his second victory, and more importantly, the perception that he did not care about them, was the most important dynamic of the debacle in the 2026 elections.

Theses such as that the economic problems were left over from the Biden era and were an indirect result of the Ukraine war found buyers during 2025. But Trump's military intervention in Iran in June 2025 resulted in the Israel issue being discussed much more openly, especially among Republicans. The fact that this intervention was limited to 12 days prevented the perception that a war had been entered into, but America's entry into war with Iran in February 2026 through the efforts of the Netanyahu government and the Israel lobby was the breaking moment. Trump's calculation that he would emerge from the Iran war with a quick victory, his failure to resolve the Hormuz crisis, and oil prices remaining high for months became a dynamic that directly affected the American economy. The image of Trump as unable to stop inflation and having reneged on his promise not to enter wars was a heavy burden on the Republicans until the November elections.

IMMIGRATION AND HEALTH

The political bill was also heavy for Trump, who promised to end the Biden-era wave of irregular migration but, instead of focusing on border security, went on a hunt for immigrants in large American cities and rural areas. The raids ICE organized almost like a paramilitary group and its practices disregarding legal procedure resulted in the deaths of documented people, green card holders, and even American citizens, creating the perception among the American people that the Trump administration had gone too far. The inability to find seasonal workers in rural areas where Republican voters are concentrated, the splitting of Latino and other immigrant families, and raids carried out without court orders strengthened the perception that border security was not the Trump administration's real concern.

Trump's efforts in both terms to weaken the health supports passed under Obama created an effect that increased the people's health expenditures. The rise in doctor and medication costs for the over-45 and over-65 retired voters considered more conservative, insurance companies refusing to cover the costs of many procedures, and Republicans cutting health subsidies in the name of reform caused health to become a risk for Trump as well. The Trump administration, which tried to shrink the federal government the moment it came to power, caused many social services in health and education to be eliminated. Despite the cuts in these areas, the increase in the military budget, the billions of dollars spent on ICE, the cost of the Iran war, and the corruption stories around Trump strengthened the perception that the administration did not care while the American people struggled with the cost of living.

IS THIS THE END OF TRUMPIST POPULISM?

Trump accepting the defeat after the election, not on his own behalf but on behalf of the Republicans, saying on the one hand that he could work with the Democrats while mentioning his veto power, and Vice President J.D. Vance's words that the reason for the defeat was the Iran war indicate that it will be difficult for Trumpist populism to recover. Pinning the bill on the Iran war and ignoring the socio-economic messages of the defeat would be a vital mistake for the Republicans, but Trumpist populism does not appear to have much of an option. In other words, it is not realistic to expect a leader-centered populist movement to admit its leader's failure. In this situation, for a potential Republican presidential candidate like Vance who wants to win the support of the Trumpist base, reducing the bill to the Iran war appears to be a more practical approach. Vance, as a figure representing the wing that advocates securing a deal with Iran and exiting the war, argues that Trumpist populism should distance itself from Israel and return to the "America First" motto.

The clear defeat faced by both the Netanyahu brand and the Israel lobby in the elections creates an opportunity for Trumpist populism to move away from war, but this will mean correcting the mistakes of the last year rather than a new revival and orientation. Ending the Iran war, which has created sharp fractures within the MAGA movement, is an indispensable requirement for any Republican candidate ahead of the 2028 elections. But ending the war will not be enough; the Republicans will need to set out what they plan to do with Trump's political legacy. They must show how they plan to affect the daily lives of lower- and middle-class American citizens. The reactionism of populist movements can excite the masses and make them representatives of rebellion against the establishment, but the perception that they have lost touch with the people's problems during the governing process after coming to power can deal a critical blow. It will not be easy at all for Trumpist populism to draw the right lessons from this blow and renew itself.

THE RISKS FACING THE DEMOCRATS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

The Democrats' focus on the people's problems and their inclusion of candidates from every segment of the people instead of overly ideological ones played an important role in their success. Having turned the Republicans' image of being out of touch with the people into an effective electoral weapon, the Democrats must now strike a good balance between destructive and constructive politics in the coming period. If they lock up the system in order to hold the Trump administration accountable and fail to operate the legislative process on matters of direct concern to the American people, they could face the risk of being punished again in 2028. Even though they have seized control in Congress, since Trump has veto power and they will not have the 60 senators needed to override a veto, they will need to work with the Trump administration and the Republicans. They are expected to take many steps, such as using the power of the purse to end the Iran war, increasing health subsidies, and limiting ICE's room for maneuver, but spending most of their time on congressional investigations and prosecuting Trump's ministers would be a mistake.

Ahead of the 2028 elections, the presidential nomination race in both parties could create new fractures. J.D. Vance will come to the fore as the candidate of a reformed version of Trumpist politics, but it is not at all easy to rehabilitate Trumpist populism, which received such a harsh reaction on November 3, over the next two years. It is possible for figures like Marco Rubio to come to the fore as more centrist and pragmatic candidates, but these figures too will need to win votes from the Trumpist electorate in some way. Within the Democrats, the coalition between the center and the progressive left could create new crises if it is not managed well. Choosing the 2028 president and vice president from names representing both of these segments could create an advantage, but forgetting that the American people favor figures from outside the system could be a critical mistake. If the perception forms that centrist figures are too closely intertwined with the Washington establishment, a scenario could emerge in which the voters will not reward that. It is a fact that both parties are in an identity crisis, and their political agendas will need to be of the kind that answers the people's problems. The party that can turn the identity crisis into a political advantage and does not forget the voters' problems will be the more successful one.