The formulas in the leaders' minds

Today, Prime Minister Davutoğlu and CHP Chairman Kılıçdaroğlu will convene in a meeting for the coalition government between AK Party and CHP.

It's not right to ascribe historic meanings to this meeting. However, it's also wrong to think of it as completely useless. What's tantamount will be the willpower of both leaders. Davutoğlu and Kılıçdaroğlu won't only be deciding whether to establish a coalition or not. They will also be making a critical decision for their political futures. They are facing the choice of melting in a coalition government, growing stronger in early elections or the complete contrary.

The Davutoğlu-Kılıçdaroğlu meeting will be designating the forthcoming process.

Both leaders have different views on the coalition government.

Kılıçdaroğlu wants a 4-year long strong AK Party-CHP coalition.

As for the Prime Minister; he is of the opinion that a 4-year long engagement is too early at this point. It's difficult to decide how long this process will continue without a coalition or not. Thus, he wants the coalition process to have an open ending.

CHP wants a restoration government to be established.

As for AK Party; they are demanding a reform government.

There is a crisis hidden in CHP's demand of the restoration government. Restoration of what? Restoration of all the practices of AK Party in the past 13 years.

The restoration of the 4+4+4 year education system, which is equal to the liquidation of the 8-year non-stop education that is aiming to put the February 28th's Imam Hatips out of business. Then, how will this be done? With the 1+8+4 year education formula of CHP? Doesn't this amount to the liquidation of the mid-level Imam Hatips?

AK Party and CHP are representing two different mentalities, and two opposite world views. After all, that's why one is named AK Party, while the other is CHP.

Some “deep differences in opinions” have been designated during the studies of both parties' committees. However, both leaders might not set their negotiations on these.

For example, Kılıçdaroğlu might ask for another negotiation over a different topic like “how can we form a coalition”, instead of differences in their opinions.

MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli, who is defending the AK Party-CHP coalition more than Davutoğlu and Kılıçdaroğlu, brought an initiative such as; “During the meetings, the articles they consented on can be taken as a base. The matters, which are within the frame of meetings and can adapt, can be included in that. After the government is established, the unconsented matters will be postponed for a while, and with a coordination council, similar to the institutional structure that can form the internal structure of the coalition during the coalition works, and other unconsented matters can be resolved”.

That moment, will be the resurrection of the coalition hope.

While believing that the early election is the strongest possibility, I also want to underline the fact that both leaders' meeting is not a show.

At this point, the willpower of both leaders is important. The environment is convenient for both leaders to say either yes or no. They have enough material to explain to their bases, no matter which decision they choose.

AK Party and CHP committees worked on the topics; economy, foreign policy, resolution process, Alevists, Constitution, education, Parliament and independent committees. The two parties, who have been defending completely opposite policies until the June 7th elections, had now come together and are looking for ways on how they can administer Turkey. No matter what the outcome of the coalition negotiations will be, this is a success on its own. It's an important gain for Turkish democracy.

Since June 7th, some government formulas lost the possibility without even being attempted first. What are left now are two possibilities.

The AK Party-CHP coalition is being attempted.

If the coalition is not established, as AK Party declared beforehand, they will form a government that will lead Turkey to early elections in November, and MHP will support it by not entering the vote of confidence voting to realize this formula, which will prevent HDP's election government suggestion. Thus, the government will be established and will lead the country to elections with the votes of confidence from 257 parliamentarians.

If these formulas cannot be realized, then, as a necessity of the Constitution's 116th Clause, the President will be giving the order to establish an election government.

Since the matter is about the President, I would like to say couple of words. Whether it's a coalition or an elected government, any plan without paying attention to President Erdoğan's role is deemed to be a failure. Especially, the government models against Erdoğan have no chance at all. Any plan, which doesn't pay attention to the Erdoğan factor, will be wrong while drawing the road map of Turkey.

On this occasion, I would like to draw attention to a wrong move of the CHP leader. Kılıçdaroğlu stated that Prime Minister Davutoğlu is on the side of a coalition with CHP; however, President Erdoğan desires an early election government; and is calling out to the Prime Minister to get rid of the “Erdoğan guardianship”. It's an impoliteness towards the Prime Minister you shook hands with for a joint government. If you really want a coalition, then it's not possible by provoking Davutoğlu against Erdoğan. First of all, Davutoğlu won't allow it.

CHP shouldn't forget this; if they want to form a coalition with AK Party, then they should be attentive towards Erdoğan. AK Party is equal to Erdoğan. Because, Erdoğan's leadership gave birth to AK Party. Being a President doesn't change this fact.

Today, if both leaders decide to form a coalition, they will either find a new way or open a new way.

If the coalition is regarded risky, then the only option is early elections.

Besides, it will be an election which AK Party government will lead the way.

Devlet Bahçeli's “Currently, since a new government is not established, than according to the law in Turkey, the existing government, if asked to continue their tasks, will have the right to use the political-social economic and executive disposals, until the new government is formed. If they also have the responsibility to lead the country to elections, then they can” words are important. The formula is hidden in these sentences.

What is the problem here? Will AK Party do this with the existing government or form a new one?

Let me say that there is also another possibility; however, let me confine myself to saying that it's beneficial to say that it will be good to watch the lobbies.