Hormuz closure threatens global food supplies, fertilizer exports, analysts warn

The escalating US-Israel war with Iran could ripple through global food markets, threatening fertilizer supplies, agricultural production and food prices, analysts warn. The closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a route that carries about a fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas and vast volumes of oil—has already sent oil prices soaring to alarming highs. But experts say fertilizer exports from the Gulf, food imports into the region and global agricultural supply chains could also face pressure if the crisis drags on, potentially driving higher food prices worldwide.

Fertilizer hub at risk

The Gulf is a major center for fertilizer production and exports, with Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain all depending on the Strait of Hormuz for their shipments. Together, these five accounted for 23% of global ammonia trade and 34% of global urea trade in 2024, according to the International Fertilizer Association. The wider Middle East region made up nearly 30% of global export supply for major fertilizers, including nitrogen, phosphate and potash, while almost half of all global urea trade also originated there in 2024. A 2025 analysis by analytics firm Kpler estimated that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could tighten fertilizer supply chains by 33%, with sulfur supplies falling by 44% and urea by 30%.

Natural gas link

Joseph Glauber, a research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, pointed out that the Gulf's importance goes beyond fertilizer exports, as it is also a major source of LNG, a key feedstock in fertilizer production. The major fertilizer products "are going to come under pressure by the fact that there's just less natural gas available," Glauber told Anadolu. He warned that prolonged restrictions on nitrogen-based fertilizer shipments could have a major effect, with major importers such as Brazil, the US, Thailand and India especially exposed to disruption.

Crop impacts

Staple crops such as corn, wheat and rice depend heavily on fertilizers, making food production vulnerable if supplies tighten. "Without a steady supply of high-grade commercial fertilizer, yields really suffer, and that's going to have direct implications for international agricultural trade and food prices around the world," said Richard Volpe, an agricultural economics expert at California Polytechnic State University. He said weak harvests could also affect future seasons, creating a "domino effect" that could last "for an extended period of time."

Timing and adaptation

Volpe said the first effects would likely be seen in longer waiting times and disrupted trade routes: "That's absolutely likely to affect food availability around the world." He noted that fertilizer shortages may not hit the current crop cycle immediately because many farmers have already bought supplies for this season, but the problem could become more serious for the next planting season. Glauber added that farmers may end up reducing fertilizer use or switching to crops that need fewer inputs if the conflict drags on.

Energy costs multiplier

Analysts say the strongest link between the conflict and food prices may ultimately be energy. Volpe called higher energy costs the most pressing concern for the global food supply chain, citing their "multiplier effect." "As we go down the food supply chain, go downstream towards consumers, those higher energy costs are going to be compounded," he said. Even if the conflict ended quickly, higher energy costs could still push food prices up within one or two months, he added. Glauber agreed that energy markets are likely to have a bigger effect on retail food prices than fertilizer shortages alone.

Market adaptation at a cost

Experts say the length of the conflict will determine how deeply it affects global food systems. "The longer this conflict persists, the longer will be the ramifications for global food prices and food availability," Volpe warned, adding that some short-term effects are already unavoidable. Kenneth Medlock, senior director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University's Baker Institute, said agricultural markets would need to find alternative supplies, "which are not typically readily available." Volpe said the crisis shows why countries need more flexible trade routes and supply chains. Glauber said markets would eventually adapt, but at a price: "I'm confident that the market will work in that regard, but at a higher cost. That's, I think, the real concern."