European spy chiefs warn Russia could step up NATO operations

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic's Security Information Service, warned on Tuesday that Russia could intensify operations against NATO members within "months, not years," including potential sabotage, drone attacks and limited incursions into allied territory.

Imminent escalation warnings

Speaking to The Guardian, Koudelka outlined possible scenarios including small-scale incursions into NATO territory, false-flag operations and extensive influence campaigns designed to destabilize allied nations. He warned that such developments could occur in "months, not years," while noting that intelligence services were working to prevent these threats from materializing.

Latvian State Security Service chief Normunds Mezviets offered a contrasting assessment, stating that no signs pointed to an imminent large-scale attack despite Moscow's apparent preparations for more decisive action in Europe. He said it remained unclear whether these activities reflected concrete military planning or constituted an attempt to spread fear and instability across the continent, acknowledging that Russian operations were increasingly targeting railway networks and defense industry facilities supporting Ukraine.

Sabotage tactics and objectives

Swedish military intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson predicted that Russian sabotage activities would intensify, citing the recent armed drone incident at Germany's Leipzig airport as a "gamechanger" and warning that attacks capable of causing deaths would represent a significant escalation. Koudelka noted that Russia's approach centered on escalating pressure in the hope that European governments would reduce their assistance to Kyiv, while intelligence officials confirmed that Moscow's broader objectives included creating divisions within NATO and alarming the general public.

Moscow denial

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov previously rejected Western assertions that Russia intended to attack NATO, saying such speculation had "no connection to Moscow's plans" and did not reflect the Kremlin's strategic intentions. His denial comes amid heightened security alerts across European capitals following a series of mysterious incidents targeting undersea cables, railways and military installations in recent months.