US soldier faces trial over $400K Maduro prediction market bets

Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US Army Special Forces soldier, will stand trial on December 7 on charges that he used classified information about the capture of then Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to earn more than $400,000 on the prediction market Polymarket. Van Dyke pleaded not guilty in April to accusations that he placed 13 bets using inside information about the Maduro operation and later attempted to destroy evidence.

Defense cites classified evidence

Defense attorney Mark Geragos argued that classified information central to the case would complicate prosecution efforts, saying investigators would need to prove who was present in the Situation Room and who authorized the decision to capture Maduro. Geragos called the prosecution an "exercise in futility" following Monday's hearing, adding that only the president could have ordered the operation and that the commander-in-chief would never divulge such details.

Prediction market scrutiny

The case comes amid growing scrutiny of prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow users to wager on real-world outcomes. Last month, New York prosecutors charged a Google employee with using confidential company information to earn more than $1.2 million on Polymarket.

Procedural timeline

Prosecutors told the court they had substantially completed evidence disclosure and expect their case to take about one week, while defense attorneys said their presentation would last a couple of days and plan to seek dismissal by July 31, according to ABC News. Van Dyke, who did not speak during Monday's hearing, remains free on a $250,000 personal recognizance bond and is currently on leave from the Army, his attorney Zach Intrater said.