Single-party rule or coalition?

I learned this method from those who direct public opinion polls.

I gathered results from GENAR, Pollmark, Andy-Ar, Denge and Konsensus one under the other, then I divided them.

According to the average, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) requires 1 percent to 1.5 percent to come to power alone. A very small decrease is observed in the Peoples' Democratic Party's (HDP) results, with a 2-percent increase in the Republican People's Party's (CHP) votes. The party whose votes declined is the National People's Party (MHP).

I didn't stop at these results. I spoke with Andy-Ar President Faruk Acar and Genar President İhsan Aktaş.

We had discussed if the HDP would pass the threshold in the June 7 elections. Now we are seeking an answer to whether the AK Party will come to power alone in the Nov. 1 elections.

The rising stars of the June 7 elections were the HDP and MHP. The AK Party and CHP were losing votes. As for the Nov. 1 elections, the tables have turned. The HDP is trying to maintain its position. The MHP is regressing. The AK Party and CHP are on a rise.

As we approach the Nov. 1 elections, the question being asked is whether the elections will produce a single-party rule or a coalition. Let me state right at the beginning what I would normally write in the end. The AK Party is in a better state compared to June 7. Going to the June 7 polls, there was an AK Party that was withering away, while now there is an AK Party that has caught a rising trend ahead of the Nov. 1 polls. The AK Party is on a rise to open the door to a single-party rule, but it has not yet been able to reach the required number of votes to come to power alone. The AK Party's sail has caught a wind, will this wind be enough to billow the AK Party's sails, enabling it to reach the harbor of a single-party rule?

I studied tech. In velocity problems, velocity times time equals the distance covered. Will the wind the AK Party caught 10 days ahead of the elections help it come to power alone? It wouldn't be an issue if it was a very strong wind. Which is why the answer to this question is not yet clear. We will see if the AK Party is strong enough. The AK Party is racing against time.

The AK Party needs 1 percent, according to Genar President Aktaş, who explains the situation as: “It is on the brink of coming to power alone.” The number of deputies is just as important as the vote rate. As you know, in the June 7 elections, despite a 3 percent difference between the HDP and MHP, both parties secured 80 seats each in Parliament. There are provinces the AK Party lost with very small numbers of votes, but there are also provinces it won with very small numbers of votes. An increase is observed in the AK Party's votes in some provinces. However, some are not enough to secure seats. But there are provinces where it is enough. According to Aktaş, it is the smaller provinces that are going to determine the fate of these elections. In other words, there are going to be places where the deputyship will change hand with a couple thousand votes.

Andy-Ar President Acar underlined they determined that right after the June 7 elections, the AK Party settled into the 42 percent trend and they shared this with the public.

According to Acar, this is not because the AK Party reviewed June 7 or because it rearranged its deputy lists or because it presented a better election manifesto.

The AK Party ran the country for 13 years. During this time period such terror incidents or political uncertainty were out of the question. The single-party rule provided stability and predictability. Once all this was over, all the problems in the country started to emerge one after the other. Acar states that this is the most important reason for the AK Party's rise.

The meltdown in the MHP is also linked to this, he said.

He believes the regression in the MHP began with MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli's announcement on June 7 that he will not join a coalition and his call for an early election. The nationalist voters who previously voted for the AK Party, but chose the MHP on June 7, believe this attitude displayed by Bahçeli has played a role in the failure to form a government and the instability that followed.

Hence, Acar said, “Just as we said on the night of June 7 that the AK Party needs to review itself, we will say the same thing for the MHP on the night of Nov. 1.”

In these elections, Acar says, for the first and last time, the AK Party will receive “custodial votes.” In the minds of the people, the impact of the Ankara explosion is beyond that of the Nov. 1 elections. The Ankara explosion reminded of the Middle East, Syria, terrorism, the plot of outside forces over Turkey. The voter is asking: “If such incidents are going to continue after Nov. 1, then who should run Turkey?” This brings the AK Party to an advantage. According to Acar, it is the still undecided 8 percent to 9 percent voters who will determine the result with their custodial votes. Choosing to speak with caution, Acar believes, “the AK Party caught a trend aimed at opening the door to a single-party rule. If the same trend continues, the door to power will open.”

In the last 10 days before the elections, parties will play their final hands. The AK Party made two strategic decisions while entering the home stretch.

1-It will aim to address the 4 percent to 4.5 percent of voters who previously voted for the AK Party, but not on June 7, but in the meantime have not gone to any other party either. So the AK Party is going to try and win back the supporters it lost before June 7.

2-The MHP and Bahçeli will not be targeted. The previous strategy was to refrain from targeting the MHP, while bringing into question Bahçeli's irreconcilable attitude. That was changed. It was detected that targeting Bahçeli had a negative impact on MHP voters. Hence it was decided that neither would be targeted.

If only the AK Party had taken a similar decision regarding the HDP and its Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtaş. Those who voted for the HDP on June 7 to stop the “Turkification” discourse and terror and pave the way for politics are not happy with the terror incidents that are happening. However, as long as the AK Party continues to turn the HDP and Demirtaş into targets, the Kurdish voter will not leave its party with an urge to embrace it. If only the AK Party could adopt an embracing tone that will win the Kurdish voters again in the last 10 days. Because it's not going to be easy for the AK Party without its Kurdish voters. We have now entered a term in politics where even 24 hours is a long period of time.