The survey on the prime minister"s table

Everyone is getting more excited counting the days to the presidential election. Questions keep coming up, like: What candidate will take what percent of the votes? Will Ekmeleddin Ihnsanoglu rise over the "roof"of the joint parties" level? Will the Prime Minister be elected in the first tour? etc…. Public surveys conducted by companies such as Pollmark, Anar, Genar and Denge offer substantial responses to these questions. The research is conducted by the "election strategy" team that was established after Erdogan"s presidential candidacy was declared. And the chairman of which is the Minister of Culture, Ömer Çelik.

In the specialist team, names are as follows: Mahir Ünal, Yalçin Akdogan, Süleyman Soylu, Mustafa Sentop, Mustafa Atas, Erol Olçak, Mücahit Arslan, Taha Özhan, Hatem Ete, Ertan Aydin, Ibrahim Dalmis, Ibrahim Uslu, Lütfullah Göktas and Aydin Ünal. AK Party officers, the Prime Minister"s consultants and a young team consisting of SETA, ANAR, Pollmark and ARTER executives.

The survey was done between 5-11 June and on a face-to-face basis. From 12 regions, with an exact number of 29.154 people have been interviewed. Therefore, its accuracy is highly probable. These are credible firms, unlike those that predict the election results with thousands of lapse rates.

Of course, before sitting to write this article, I got in touch with the company executes who conducted the survey, managing it on the field, writing analyses, and presenting it to the Prime Minister.

They made significant warnings concerning the presidential elections. There is an important question aside from the issue about who will get what vote rate. It is the attendance rate. The attendance rate will determine the high and low vote rates.

In the report presented to the Prime Minister, the rate of the undecided voters including those who stated they wouldn"t participate in the elections is 13.5%. I am personally expecting a more percentage of undecided voters, considering the CHP"s big fuss and the "vacationists" who will disappoint Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu. I guess it will be at least 20%.

According to the survey, they stop at 13.5%. Of course, the level of the undecided voters may decrease verging on August 10, just before we go to the ballot box for the first tour of the elections.

What about how does it appear if we distribute undecided voters to parties?

This is a critical point because these results are also the key to determine whether the elections will be done in the first tour or not.

The survey on the Prime Minister"s table is as follows:

Recep Tayyip Erdogan 54.6%

Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu 38.1%

Selahattin Demirtas 3%

There are other ratings. I also would like to share them. These findings show the results as follows.

1-Erdogan gets all of the AK Party voters but also outside AK Party.

2. The 5% of the voters in CHP, 17% in MHP, 9% in BDP are claiming that they will vote for Erdogan. The common sense that once was established at the referendum ballot box reflects to the presidential elections, as well.

In relation to how Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu is presented as "the joint candidate", the fact is that the real, large-scale consensus is taking place at the party base. Erdogan is heading for a 58% of the votes, which he collected on September 12, 2012 at the referendum. What does that mean? In view of the public support, it is important that Erdogan is elected in the first tour with a 55% support. This result has the power to ride the balance wheel inside and outside.

An Erdogan, who is rising to Çankaya by collecting the votes more than 55%, will become more powerful in deciding the Ak Party Chairman and the Prime Minister. The last eight victorious elections and the Referendum ballot box will grant this power to Erdogan, as well.

Even though Kiliçdaroglu passionately punches the speaker"s desk, saying. "You will go to that ballotbox", the situation is not that bright on Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu"s front. The estimated percentage of the votes collected from five parties for Ihsanoglu is around 43.8%. Let alone getting any outer votes, Mr. Ekmel could not even manage to collect the five party"s votes.

Selahattin Demirtas looks quite showy because of Kurdish voters, but he only raised one percentage of his votes in the last elections.

I talked with Ass. Prof. Ertan Aydin, the senior adviser to the Prime Minister, who is also in the specialist team.

He said, "On the average, across Turkey Erdogan is five or six percent above the AK Party level, whereas Ekmeleddin Ihnsanoglu seems to be five percent below what he represents. This situation indicates that Erdogan is also backed by the support of other parties, while Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu is not approved by some of the voters in CHP and MHP. Erdogan, with an alliance that is similar to the consensus in the 2010 referendum, is likely to be elected the president with more than 55 percent."

Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, who was called in with a hope for getting the votes from the AK Party base, cannot even collect votes from his own base. On the other hand, Erdogan is heading for a great consensus at the ballot box.

So, who else but Mr. Kiliçdaroglu would keep punching the speaker"s desk?