Will the AK Party come to power alone?

The political picture before the Nov.1 elections is different compared with June 7.

The wind has begun to blow from different directions. We will see whether this climate will make a party to come to power alone or will Turkey enter into a coalition spiral again when the ballot boxes are opened on the evening of Nov. 1.

What are the differences between the Nov. 1 elections in comparison to June 7?

Before the June 7 elections there was a decline in the votes of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

Before the Nov. 1 elections the votes of the AK Party are increasing.

But before the June 7 elections, some votes were shifting from the AK Party to the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

Yet before the Nov. 1 elections, votes are shifting from the MHP to the AK Party.

Before the June 7 elections the voters of the AK Party were criticizing their party.

But before the Nov. 1 elections the voters of the AK Party are supporting their party.

Before the June 7 elections it was questioned whether the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) would pass the threshold.

But before the Nov. 1 elections, the question is whether the AK Party will come to power alone.

Before the June 7 elections the wind was blowing against the AK Party, but now ahead of the Nov. 1 elections, it is blowing in favor of the AK Party.

Before the June 7 elections there was a shift in votes from the Republican People's Party (CHP) to the HDP to push it over the threshold.

Before the Nov. 1 elections the CHP is on a rise. Before the June 7 elections the HDP and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) were on the rise.

But before the Nov. 1 elections the MHP is falling behind.

The AK Party and CHP's positive attitude in the coalition talks after the June 7 elections left a positive impression on the masses who found the stability important.

Our people who supported the MHP and HDP that did identity politics in the June 7 elections, with the country's administration in question, are now favoring the AK Party and CHP, the main pillars of politics.

This is the home stretch in the elections. Five days later we will go to elections. The question everyone has been asking is: “Will Turkey wake up Monday, on the morning of Nov. 2 to a single-party rule or a coalition?

The results of the Nov. 1 elections will shape the next four years of Turkey.

We will either be dragged into a coalition whirlpool or be administrated by a single-party government.

In order to be get the answers to these questions, I spoke with İbrahim Uslu, the general manager of the survey company ANAR.

Uslu said, “The high voter turnout abroad is increasing the votes of the AK Party. Since the June 7 elections, it is the first time the AK Party is so close to coming to power alone.”

Uslu is the one who managed the research in early May that found the results of the June 7 elections.

He has been working regularly with the AK Party since the founding of the party.

ANAR is an institution whose searches I trust very much. I asked Uslu what the votes abroad would bring to the AK Party.

He said, “With the votes abroad, the AK Party will have an additional 9-10 deputies.”

In 21 places the AK Party lost deputyship by a neck. The number of places where it won deputyship by a nose is seven. The votes abroad will affect the places where deputyship was lost by a neck the most.

According to Uslu, the only unknown thing is the rate of the domestic voter turnout.

“If the domestic voter turnout is high like the voter turnout abroad, it is possible that the AK Party will come to power alone on Nov. 1.”

Because of the consecutive elections, our people are tired of the ballot box.

Public survey institutes say the voter turnout will be high but if it becomes low, how will the AK Party be affected from that?

Uslu defines this situation as the biggest obstacle in the path of the AK Party to come to power alone. In the June 7 elections the voter turnout was 83.92 percent. The voter turnout should be at least 83.92 percent for the AK Party to come to power alone after the Nov. 1 elections. It should not be under this particular rate. If the voter turnout is low, the AK Party cannot have the chance to come to power alone.

Uslu says that the votes of the AK Party have been increasing since the June 7 elections. Only after the explosion in Ankara there has been half a percentage point decline. An interesting point. After the explosion in Ankara the votes for the left have been on the rise. The votes of the CHP increased 1 percent whereas the HDP's votes increased a half percentage point. For the first time the CHP has exceeded 27 percent, the HDP gathered its votes.

It seems that the only party having a voter decline is the MHP. And the Felicity Party (SP), which is not in Parliament.

One percent of the MHP's votes shifted to the AK Party and 1 percent shifted to the CHP. The conservative-nationalist votes from the MHP shifted to the AK Party whereas the ultra-nationalist votes shifted to the CHP.

The AK Party received 1 percent from the SP and Grand Unity Party (BBP). Uslu says, “The knife-edge situation is still continuing.” For the AK Party to come to power alone, 1 million votes are needed.” How will it get it?

To be able to come to power alone the AK Party will convince its former voters. “If half of the voters of the AK Party out of the 4-4.5 percent of those who did not vote in the last elections vote for the AK Party, the AK Party can come to power alone.”

In this situation, the key to come to power alone is in the hands of the former AK Party voters. In this situation if the AK Party rises, it will rise from its own ashes

2 million votes effect the election results as 2 points. This is very important but not impossible. The AK Party can do this only with a vote increase in İstanbul.

But in this election not a million votes, but even one single vote is very valuable.

The last words of İbrahim Uslu on the elections were, “Coalition is not a must. Coming to power alone is also possible.”

Administrating Turkey with a rulership won by a neck can be a problem. That's why, for İbrahim Uslu the number of the deputies to easily administrate the country as the one party rulership is 285.

The light on the edge of the tunnel has been seen for the AK Party's one party rulership.

But to be able to see the light of a better future is what is actually important for the people.