Is Akşener becoming history while attempting to ‘make’ history?

There are exactly 56 days until Türkiye’s presidential election. The opposition table of six, including its presidential candidate, declared at the end of an unforgettable, painful process, to add a seventh party to strengthen their position. However, it seems the waters will not calm on the opposition front.

Good Party (İP) leader Meral Akşener had left the table in objection to main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s presidential candidacy. As soon as 72 hours later, she returned with two new vice president candidates. Using Mansur Yavaş and Ekrem İmamoğlu as her return ticket, Akşener said, “This solution feels right. I repeat I will not run for deputy, I trust this decision.”

It has been 10 days since Akşener gave the “guarantee” on television. While the public and the opposition electorate are trying to comprehend the seven-vice-president model, Yavaş made statements signaling the lack of unity among the opposition front.

Yavaş said on Fatih Altaylı’s television news program, “as if to redesign the table he joined afterwards” as a mayor, “It was the last day, a few hours were left. If we had a few more days, we would have suggested, ‘Declare Ekrem [İmamoğlu] and me as vice president. Our party chairs can be deputies and maintain their party leadership.’ I feel it is more logical for them to stay with and lead their own groups. This is my opinion. I will discuss this with the party chairs, but the [final] decision is at the table’s discretion.”

Yavaş’s last-minute sortie in the capacity of “vice presidential candidate” both leaves Akşener out and in the lurch once again.

Yavaş’s statement should be analyzed under two headlines:

1- Yavaş is alleging that his vice-presidential candidacy with İmamoğlu was rushed into a fait accompli. He is saying that if there was time, they were going to make the proposal along with the condition the party chairs at the table refrain from running for vice president. Though they seem to be Akşener’s return ticket to the table, it can be said that Yavaş and İmamoğlu are working on a similar plan without walking all over Kılıçdaroğlu.

Note that three months before the candidate was announced, Ali Babacan had said, “There is a consensus leaning towards the idea of the party chairs being vice presidents,” explaining that the party chairpersons in the table of six want to be vice presidents. Temel Karamollaoğlu, on the other hand, opposed this idea and stated that they need to stay with and continue to lead their deputies and parties. Karamollaoğlu had further suggested the “coordination committee” formula for the party chairs.

2- On the television program, Yavaş gave the signal that he would be insisting party leaders run for deputy and continue to lead their parties. Thus, the party chairs would need to withdraw their candidacy for vice president. Yavaş said, “I will talk to them.” This means İmamoğlu and Yavaş may in the upcoming days pay visits to the table of six leaders.

But on whose behalf will Yavaş and Mansur, who joined the table afterwards, hold the meetings? On behalf of the party chairs and presidential candidate Kılıçdaroğlu? Or on behalf of Akşener, who first imposed that they run for president, and then the “vice president” formula?

Akşener and İP’s current situation answers the question. As soon as Akşener left the table, she was abandoned by Yavaş and İmamoğlu. She experienced a serious trust crisis. Frankly, she had no other choice but to return to the table, and she tried to fix the situation by coming back. But the reactions, as well as public polls show that the alarm bells are ringing for her party. Akşener has lost power as the table’s co-founder and second party. Moreover, she is now equalized with the other partners, whom she did not consider equal to herself and her party.

Before Akşener left the table, and Kılıçdaroğlu announced his candidacy, İP’s vote rate, according to some İP-origin polls, was presented as 19 percent. Though the result in many objective polls, the vote share was 10-11 percent. İP-origin polls are currently not in circulation. However, according to ADA Araştırma, GENAR, and AREDA’s latest public polls, İP’s votes have dropped to 7 percent. The rapid decline in the last month may continue, because Kılıçdaroğlu has not yet negotiated with the Peoples’ Democracy Party (HDP), and the İP front remains quiet. They couldn’t even reply to HDP leader Selahattin Demirtaş’s letter to Akşener. Every step they take – or not – in this process is causing İP to lose votes. If they end up going to the election outside the alliance, they will risk remaining below the threshold. Though Akşener has posters featuring photographs of İmamoğlu and Yavaş, labeled, “We Will Make History” plastered all over Istanbul, a very different history is being written for her and her party.

İP is not the only table of six party on a decline. Once Kılıçdaroğlu’s presidential candidacy was announced, the other parties also failed to gain speed. CHP-base public forces are losing strength too – because Kılıçdaroğlu will be the focal point now.

In this case, the new formula suggested by Yavaş may lead the other party leaders, including Akşener, to step back.

Additionally, considering Muharrem İnce’s inevitable rise, Yavaş, and İmamoğlu’s “strong figures project,” will serve as one last chance for the table of six to clean up its act. Furthermore, will the two names in whom Akşener had great trust and set her hopes, be able to overcome the image of a dissident, disorganized, indecisive alliance that prioritizes rank and position? We will see clearer in the next two weeks.