The future of renewable energy and expectations for Türkiye

“The world is in a real energy crisis for the first time.” Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, had previously used this sentence in an interview. The same sentence is now included in the recently published “Renewable Energy Report” by the International Energy Ageny.

WHAT DOES THE REPORT SAY?

The International Energy Agency published a report titled "Renewable 2022: Analysis and Forecasts for 2027" on Tuesday. The report is of serious importance in many respects. Because this report contains changes and predictions at a time when the effects of the Russia-Ukraine War were felt intensifying.

According to the report; For the first time, we are in a real energy crisis. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created unprecedented momentum for renewable energy sources. In the next five years, the increase in renewable energy capacity will occur much faster than expected a year ago. In this year's report, the estimate of an increase between 2022 and 2027 is 30% more than the forecast in last year's report.

Electricity produced from renewable energy will have the highest share in total electricity production by 2027. Again in 2027, while the capacity of wind power plants will double, the installed power capacity of solar power plants will exceed the installed power capacity of coal power plants.

According to the report of the International Energy Agency, with the effect of the energy crisis that emerged after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, renewable energy plans have been brought forward around the world, especially in EU countries. In other words, countries are accelerating their green energy transition strategies. The desire to reduce the dependence on another country, especially Russia, when it comes to energy resources plays a major role in this.

The main reason why there is a global energy crisis right now is what happened after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War. The sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU on Russia's energy resources and the resulting problems brought about energy supply security and price security crises. Meanwhile, concerns are intensifying that renewable energy and energy storage technologies will increase dependency on other countries such as China this time. In other words, the change in energy source does not reduce the dependency, it only changes the dependency country. I think this will be one of the main topics of discussion in the upcoming period.

According to the estimates in the "Renewable Energy" report of the International Energy Agency, Türkiye's renewable energy capacity will grow by 64% in the next 5 years. It is predicted that this growth will make Türkiye the fourth-largest market in Europe and the tenth-largest market in the world for renewable energy. Of course, such growth has to come with energy storage as a complementary element. Because natural fluctuations in renewable energy production necessitate this.

Türkiye's potential in this regard is also quite high. The statements made by EMRA President Mustafa Yılmaz before the International Energy Agency's report was published also point to this. Yılmaz's statement, "A record $110 billion application has been received for storage wind and solar energy investments" points to Türkiye's potential in this regard, and shows that EMRA has taken strategic steps to realize this potential with proactive steps.