Ashes of the Berlin Angel

The most interesting visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's – who is expected to come to Turkey on Sunday – was the one she made to Moscow in 2007. Before entering the room in which she was to talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin, she made a powerful statement: “ I have come to Russia, not only as Germany's leader, but as the term chairman of the European Union. I am hoping that Russia will remain faithful to the agreements!”

The focus of the “mutual leader” of Europe's visit to Kremlin was the energy tension between Europe and Russia, and thus the chancellor was there to use an iron hand in a velvet glove.

After Merkel's statement, Putin only smiled and said, “please come in, we shall speak inside.” They walked toward the door of the room in which they would talk privately and Merkel stepped in.

She was welcomed by a large black Labrador!

She sat down looking at Putin with fear in her eyes, while numerous journalists wired the photos of the leader of Europe, sitting next to a giant dog, to the world...

“It wont do anything. But I will punish it for frightening you!”

The leash of Europe's biggest fear was in Putin's hands. ('Putin uses dog to intimidate Merkel', 14/07/2007, Foreign Policy.)

From Edirne to Vienna: A refugee Siege

A cold war style isn't used in the hospitality tradition of Ankara's diplomacy. Therefore, in the Germany-Turkey meeting scheduled for tomorrow, symbols such as “sticks and leashes” will not be used, but chilling moments will surely happen. Especially during topics on “Turkey's internal politics.”

Europe is facing its worst refugee crisis since World War II. In fact, although not verbally expressed, this situation is perceived as a threat by Europe, especially Germany. Because, this issue will create internal and external political consequences. One of these consequences being the 5-point drop in public support toward the German government.

The cold truth is that Europe does not want these people. The refugees they unwillingly accepted are because of the pressure created by the global public opinion and the inevitable responsibility the images of “the lifeless body of a boy washing ashore” has put upon them. Besides, they aren't trying to hide this either. European Council President Donald Tusk had said they aimed to stem the flow of refugees into Europe and that they were talking with Turkey on the issue. “The agreement made with Turkey will only make sense if this inflow is stemmed. The concessions will only be legalized if this is achieved,” said Tusk.

Europe is in a hurry. Although it isn't really spoken of, they are planning to stop, or at least slow down, this refugee influx with an appropriate format by April 2016. Obviously, they are expecting things to escalate in Syria and that they are estimating that they will not be able to stop the possible influx that is expected to happen during spring/summer.

Chancellor Merkel's visit, will again not only represent Berlin but the European Union. The Brussels meeting she attended can be regarded as some kind of “authorization.” Putting the visit and the recent statements about Turkey being brave, aside, the negotiations continuing for days in Ankara, show that Turkey is the “only key” to a solution.

This isn't the only issue that is currently constricting/debilitating Germany; 1. The allegations that German intelligence was wiretapping for the American NSA created great stress between Germany, Washington and Turkey. This claim was renewed just before the visit. It appeared that Germany's foreign intelligence service BND was only wiretapping “fellow” countries for its personal use. I don't know whether this would be asked in Ankara, but apparently Merkel was aware of the issue. 2. Another currently important topic is the Volkswagen crisis that recently surfaced in Germany. The German Federal Motor Vehicles Department asked for the faulty vehicles to be recalled. Volkswagen then stated it would recall 8.5 million vehicles in 28 EU countries, in which it was detected that the exhaust emission tests were manipulated.

Because of these reasons, in terms of Ankara's expectations from Europe; there are a series of reasons, reflected in the media, from relations with the EU to the millions of euros that will be spent on refugees.

But, at this stage, there are Nov. 1 connections between the Turkey-Germany relations and some foreign policy relations.

The Leashes in Germany ' s Hands...

Berlin, just like Turkey, is one of the main actors of the Ukraine-Syria fault line. While Germany is connected to Russia via energy and Ukraine, Ankara is connected to Russia through Crimea and Syria, and even Iran and the Black Sea. (The German Foreign Minister was in Iran yesterday and Saudi Arabia today!)

The ending of the Ukraine crisis once and for all is of great significance for Germany and acts as a bridge with Syria. Hence, she is keeping in mind the relation of creating a safe zone in the north of Syria – which Turkey wants – with the refugee problem.

Just as it knows that, diplomatically speaking, that Germany-Turkey relations will get better and the scheduled meeting will affect the Nov. 1 elections!

Therefore, it needs to be seen well that certain figures in Germany and Turkey consider the current talks as “horse negotiations,” and the fears that “Germany is patching up Turkey's flaws.”

The fear is valid.