Multi-national intrigues in the Damascus palace

“On the subject of Syria, relations with Saudi Arabia have been continuing on a very positive course since the new king has assumed the throne. This is a fact; the balances in Syria change rapidly. After the rebels left Latakia, they increased the suppression there. The regime holds a very small space along the Syria-Israel borderline, which is totally under the rebels' control. Even some news in the Israeli press says, 'It seems Assad will move from Damascus to Latakia.' The Syrian regime is cornered day by day. There are serious changes in the balances,” says the Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu.

“Of course, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and the coalition forces are carrying out some work. They are within the framework of the train-equip program. Both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have an appropriate perspective for these works. However, what kind of schedule will be followed in Syria will become apparent by the coming months. The rebels are already gaining power in Syria and the regime is losing. Without a doubt, the oppositions' gain in power means that there is support from the friendly countries in the region,” says the President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The sentences uttered by both Davutoğlu and Erdoğan indicate the growth of development concerning the future of Damascus.

We can, however, assume that some part of these sayings is addressing Washington, which is still whining about Syria. Until paying attention to Erdoğan's following piping hot sentences: “The U.S. has just started to see this. The American generals came and they examined. They will also provide support for these works (train-equip, secure zone, no-fly zone) they should do so. The Turkmens need to be trained. The dialogue with the U.S. healthily continues, just the same as our dialogue with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan.

In effect, it is possible to read this description as a coalition, especially given that King Salman bin Adbulaziz of Saudi Arabia announced that he would not attend the summit in Camp David, where the U.S. President Barack Obama will host the Gulf countries! Considering that the White House announced that Obama will meet King Salman in person, it can be said that until the swearwords uttered in the Oval Office reach here, it can turn into“cooperation.”

More whispering is heard with regard to the internal disputes/fissures in Assad's government. After the news announcing that the President of the National Security Bureau of Syria was hospitalized – it was explained that he overate in an evening party – the fact is that some other names holding similar positions and power in the government headed to the hospital, as well.

According to the assertions, these powerful names in the balance of Damascus planned a coup, contacting Assad's Uncle, Rifaat al-Assad. Previously, on the same ground, Assad got his Uncle's son arrested. Among these names are Assad's private guards and it has been said that Iranian guards are now being preferred due to the fear of a coup d'état ('Beşar Esad korumalarını neden değiştirdi', 11/05, 21.yy. Enstitüsü.)

The allegations that the President of the National Security Bureau and Ali Mamlouk, who can be seen as the safe of the critical information about the regime, joined in an attempt to stage a coup against Bashar al-Assad in cooperation with Rifaat al-Assad and some countries including Turkey hit the global press. ('Bashar al-Assad's spy chief arrested over Syria coup plot', 11/05, The Telegraph.)

There are many attractive news articles, gossip and intelligence on the Damascus regime. In particular, the information on Assad's security cordon as well as on the general and military intelligence show, that the changes carried out in these areas do not always belong to Assad. Most of them come from Tehran! This must probably be the most critical information.

Besides, Iran's objection to Prime Minister Davutoğlu's visit to the Tomb of Suleyman Shah, shown when they say “Turkish Prime Minister's entrance into the Syrian land on the pretext of visiting the Tomb of Suleyman Shah is a very dangerous step for the region” – can be a meltdown in the same pot.

In the end, these news stories and columns that have discovered that the new developments may occur in Syria by reading Western sources and through cooperation among Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are late. More has been written and done, including this article.

What is new there to “be added?”

First of all, Cairo says, “A rapprochement with Iran amid what is going on in the Arab world is off the table, as that would mean there is a role for Iran in the Arab world, while we are working on Arab national security and territorial integrity.” (Egypt cooperation with Iran and Turkey ruled out due to “Arab national security”, 10/05, Cairo Post) These sentences of the Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs include the internal equilibrium of Syria, Yemen and the Gulf countries. (It seems that Riyadh will prevent Cairo from adding Turkey next to Iran. That is a different issue that we do not touch upon.)

Second of all, apart from Egypt, another country that has been making meaningful preparations for the change in Syria is Israel. It has been publicly written that the Israeli army has been highly prepared in order to shoot the organizations in Syria that, it thinks, will be dangerous for Israel after the overthrow of the regime. According to this, Israel composes a “bank of targets” for the spots it is going to shoot after Assad's regime has been overturned. The failure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in southern Syria has been presented as a reason to the expedited preparations. And it has been stated that the neighborhood in Damascus where the Syrian military and political elite reside can turn into a target for the bombardment! ('Israel prepares for a post-Assad phase in neighboring Syria', 11/05, aranews.)