Who will be present as Obama and Putin discuss Syria?

When international news agencies announced to the world that Kremlin's spokesperson said, “Russia's State President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama will be meeting on Monday (28/09),” it was 7:30 p.m. Whereas, when the Russian News Agency gave the “good news,” or when it leaked the news to its readers, it was 5:48 p.m. on Wednesday: “The White House has not yet confirmed the meeting is to take place, but a source in Moscow said Obama and Putin will meet at the United Nations…” (Source: Obama, Putin to meet during Russian leader's visit to UN', 23/09, TASS.)

If you don't understand how such simple information lays the big map out on the table, you won't be able to understand the great and strange consensus in Syria either.

If the U.S., Russia, the U.K., Germany, Iran, and Israel (Israeli media's headlines are along the lines of, “It is time to divide Syria into 4”) are displaying a consensus regarding the future of Damascus and extending Bashar Assad's life… If two of the world's most dangerous countries in terms of military come nose to nose in a tight space like Syria – which is currently in war – and first shout at each other in front of the world, then U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says, “Assad must step down, but not necessarily immediately,” and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says, “I think the Americans are much more receptive [now] of the arguments we have been presenting for several years now”… Then you need to keep count of not only the above mentioned days and hours, but also minutes.

You can't consider this as an example of the competition or enmity between the U.S. and Russia, thinking it is a part of the deal extending from Ukraine to the Middle East and Black Sea to the Mediterranean. You will have difficulty if you don't take this as a small map.

They will make it difficult!

The likelihood of DAESH, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), becoming involved in Russia and the Caucasus, and intelligence that this is encouraged by the U.S. feeds Moscow's greatest concern. (“By surging in Syria, Putin goes from pariah to powerbroker,” 24/09, Financial Times.) Everybody knows that Putin will resist in all ways to the spreading of extreme elements into Russia and/or its backyard. So, for starters, try and see the opening of a mosque in Moscow, home to 2 million Muslims, by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his counterpart Putin from this aspect. Secondly, for the deal between Russia and the U.S. – in which Europe participated involuntarily – the cards were on Ukraine and Syria. So in other words, solving one meant solving the other, as in “take this, give that.” However, I am assuming you still have the big map open! At the point that the Caucasus and Central Asia were played as cards, Russia's response was “keep away” from the region, but it wasn't understood.

This is why we are keeping the stopwatch at the beginning; those statements, leakages are when Chinese President Xi Jinping started to visit the U.S.! They are references to that timing.

That is the current U.S. President' and – if elected – future U.S. president and former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton's “Pacific Century.” The Asia Pacific was Russia's card and it repressed this strategic field of vital importance for the U.S. through partnership with China. And it was effective too. The Moscow-Beijing partnership started to push the U.S. outside of the Asia Pacific equation. One of the main reasons for this is that Washington has not been able to have time for anything other than the Middle East and related issues, especially Iraq and Syria problems. The Ukraine crisis it started did not yield the results it wanted either. The plan went from “U.S. boots will not step on the ground” to U.S.'s Special Forces carrying out mutual operations with the Kurds in “northern Syria.”

It can now be clearly observed that principal Western capitals are experiencing a fast and certain turn in Syria. We can see that the two super powers are rapidly advancing towards a point of consensus in Syria, that the likely result will certainly affect the region and the most critical meeting of all regarding the matter will take place between Putin and Obama. Putin will give clues between the lines in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly after many years.

Two points are critical in terms of Ankara: Assad's future and Syria's integrity. Following presidents Erdoğan and Putin's meeting, it was repeated that the differences of opinion between Turkey and Russia regarding the matter continues. The president said, “The matter generally focuses on a single point. A Syria with or without Assad? We say there needs to be a transition period for normalization. An Assad administration is out of the question for the future.”

The second point becomes clear when the president says, “Assad wants a boutique state.” This means division in Syria and brings to the table fighting against terrorism. Russia says, “We will not overlook any negativity aimed at Turkey.”

Impression: Ankara is not disturbed by Russia's increasing presence in Syria! Meaning, Turkey is not outside this plan. The situation will become clear only when the increased and supported value of İncirlik Air Base with the new Russian bases and air forces newly established in Syria is taken into consideration.

Then, can an agreement be reached in the Russia-U.S. meeting? It is highly likely. So why shouldn't the consensus formed after the Sept. 11, Afghanistan and Boston attacks be repeated now?

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