Is it back to the drawing board for our region?

Is the Ukraine war a reflection of the global fight for power independent of other regions, or is it a U.K. and U.S. tactic or strategy? An independent reflection can be in question if we consider Russia’s financial resources, vast lands, and its significance along the East-West line. This is what colonialist expansionism requires. On the other hand, considering the fact that imperialist Western countries’ maneuver area has shrunk in a multi-centered world, tactic and strategy is not an idea to be taken lightly. Taking into account that the U.S. and West Europe are going through “stagnation”, or a “regression period,” we can consider both. 

 The course of relations between Türkiye and Egypt after 2013 should not be discussed independently of the two options created by the Ukraine war. This is confirmed by the unsteady relations between Türkiye and Russia during this period. It is the U.S. and West European states’ disposals over our region that shaped this turbulent process. Iraq was invaded before the Soviets' collapse was concluded. It should also be remembered that a France-backed coup was conducted in Algeria in the same year in order to negate the results of the local elections. All these show that the events that emerged in the last three decades in the east of Europe are all directly associated. 

 Certain groups in Türkiye have turned a blind eye to the reflections of this global fight for power on our region. They are blinded by their hostile sentiments towards President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As a result of these two factors, they are trying to understand and make sense out of regional developments within a fixed frame. They are thus doomed to an extremely fixed view, such as “Erdogan did so and so yesterday, but he is doing this today, these are contradicting and inconsistent. Yet, in order to see the developments that emerged in the last decade after 2013, we need to view the events from as far as two centuries. In fact, if we leave aside the mindset issues, the Mediterranean regaining value as an alternative to the Atlantic-based world shows the importance of taking into consideration a five-century period. 

 Europe and U.S.-based dependent structures were activated in 2013 in both Türkiye and Egypt. Erdogan had resisted the events aimed directly at toppling him with great acumen and determination and gained a certain direction to social events. One of the most staggering results for President Erdogan is the distance these events caused between him and his comrades. We saw through experience how major detachments are staggering in terms of Türkiye as well. We are now able to associate the detachments during that period with the events that developed through the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO). These were part of the plans concerning our region. The events in 2014, and the FETO invasion attempt on July 15, 2016, show the meaning of the project concerning our region at large. There was a plan targeting our whole region. Had Erdogan surrendered, they would have determined Türkiye’s direction. 

 Türkiye’s anti-imperialist struggle after July 15, 2016, found a response across our region. By preventing the terrorist state planned to be built in the north of Iraq and Syria, Türkiye spoiled the three decades of plans after the 1990s. Map drafts were torn and trashed. Türkiye showing game-changer presence at the gates of the East Mediterranean again changed more than the balances in Libya. The survival of the legitimate government in Libya changed all balances in the East Mediterranean as well. Despite this, they tried to cause chaos again in South Caucasus in hopes to cause weakness in Türkiye’s East Mediterranean policy. But their plans failed to hold up once more. The results of the Karabakh War II are as important as the East Mediterranean. The order the U.S. attempted to build in the heart of Asia collapsed completely. We must not forget that the U.S. abandoned Afghanistan after Karabakh War II. 

Both dependent and state structures were lost. They saw that the U.S. and Europe are not absolute powers. President Erdogan’s statements about Egypt, and in fact, his messages regarding convergence with Syria signal a new context. It is truly difficult to understand the present without taking into consideration the changes that took place in the last decade. It is clear that nothing will ever be the same. This applies to the elements that have moved away from Erdogan as well. The current developments should be viewed through the “Türkiye Century” context.