What will Türkiye be like post-2023 election?

The results of the 2023 Türkiye election is beyond a matter of national curiosity alone. The results of this election closely concern other countries and regions outside of Türkiye as well. For example, many countries in the Balkans are already taking positions in accordance with the likely results of the 2023 election. The state of calm in the Balkans has been possible through the constant suppression of the long-running tensions in the region, however, showing sensitivity is essential in order for this state to continue. The response on the ground of Türkiye increasingly boosting its strength after the 1990s as a balance element in this region is beyond estimates. There is no doubt that Türkiye’s election will directly impact the Balkans as well. 

 There is no harm in mentioning the East Mediterranean and North Africa together. Türkiye has taken major steps in its East Mediterranean policy, which directly concerns the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). In this respect, it is quite clear that the support of the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya cannot be discussed in a single dimension. This support closely concerns not only the East Mediterranean but also North African countries, as well as Africa’s depths. France and Italy are close followers of Türkiye’s support of Libya. In fact, France sees Türkiye as a threat in terms of its general interests in Africa. Hence, France and Italy are directly interested in Türkiye’s election. 

 The countries designing the terror corridor that is expected to pass through the north of Iraq and Syria to the East Mediterranean are also closely interested in the results of the 2023 election. We can say that particularly the U.S. and Russia, as well the U.K. and Israel are also focused on the election results. Similarly, Iran is closely interested in the results of the 2023 election due to its presence in this region and the South Caucasus. 

 We should associate the Caucasus and Turkestan region with the results of this election as well. It is impossible not to see that Türkiye is an essential element of balance in especially South Caucasus. Türkiye increased its strength in South Caucasus over time. Türkiye’s presence is critical, especially in terms of Azerbaijan, and the results of the 2023 elections will directly impact South Caucasus. The election results will have a serious response in the Turkestan region as well. The Organization of Turkic States’ (OTS) presence needs to be understood considering a much broader area. Afghanistan and Pakistan should also be included within the OTS’s likely area of effect. Considering an almost two-century history, it is impossible to remain unexcited in the face of geographical depth. 

 Other countries’ interest in Türkiye’s election results is quite natural. Considering the election date, there has probably never been a time when Türkiye’s elections were followed so closely. There is no need to even mention that these countries and regions are focusing on Türkiye’s elections with vastly differing opinions. This is a new development that is in line with Türkiye’s rise in many Turkic and Islamic regions, starting from the Balkans. It is this rise that determines the differences. 

 Yet, what does the 2023 election signify for someone looking at Türkiye from the inside? Can we make a projection regarding the next decade for Türkiye? For example, what sort of a country will Türkiye be in the world of 2030? Will it become a country forced to withdraw to itself, or will we be living in a country where problems of the past – including certain current agenda topics – are almost forgotten? For example, are we imagining a world in which dependency relations continue, or will we become a country that is capable of making decisions on its own behalf, both within and outside? It is possible to say in this context that dependent structures will also be seriously impacted by the 2023 elections. Seeing that these structures will not hesitate to take an active role during the election process shows this as well. These structures' effects in Türkiye will be voted on as well. Thus, in which direction will Türkiye’s decision be? Surely these questions as well as similar other questions will be answered with the 2023 election. 

 Türkiye’s 2023 elections will make a splash in a broad area. This can be understood from the number of countries interested in the election. We may have difficulty making a very clear distinction, but it is certain that we are reaching a major decision-making moment.