Why did Davutoğlu threaten opposition bloc with vote rate?

The outburst today by Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) and Future Party (GP) leaders Ali Babacan and Ahmet Davutoğlu, members of the opposition bloc, also known as “the table of six,” presents significant differences compared to when they first left the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party). Both leaders are showing clearer, more understandable behavior now. Going back – particularly before and after the coup and invasion attempt on July 15, 2016 – Babacan and Davutoğlu had displayed a more ambiguous opposition identity. This was only natural. Political actors during this period, which was scene to one of the most critical breaking points in the last two centuries, started seeking a new position. Despite settling on an opposition identity, the uncertainty of what the future had in store caused great stress for them. The source of the uncertainty was the inability to provide a clear answer to who would win. This uncertainty reflected on these party leaders’ actions as well. As a result, they focused on their reasons to part ways with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

What happened in Türkiye on July 15, 2016, was one of the most critical breaking points in our two-century-old political history. When explaining the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETÖ), it is essential to know the relations involved when t first emerged. However, this organization gained real meaning in Gulf War I. This war gave the organization the opportunity to rise in the fields that opened. Following the Soviets’ fall, the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Turkestan region became FETÖ’s operation field. More clearly, FETÖ found room in the U.S. and the U.K.’s influence area. Türkiye’s regular instability after the 1990s was a result of Gulf War I as well. This indicates a major change in the history of the last two centuries. The conservative groups that gained prominence in Türkiye were also at the center of relations with the West now.

Considering the breaking points in our near region, the new era that started in 1991 with Gulf War I, ended on July 15, 2016. Yet, is the remaining 25 years, a thing of the past, with all the attributes that differentiate it from the others? It is impossible to say yes to this question. Reason being that, though FETÖ lost its power as an organized group, the real context that prepared the foundation for the quarter-century period is yet to be resolved. Naturally, extensions of this context are still maintaining presence. However, it hasn’t been easy to overcome the shattering results of July 15 for them either.

It hasn’t been an easy task for conservatives to adopt the opposition identity during the July 15, 2016 process. Hence, it was just as difficult for Davutoğlu and Babacan to stand against Erdoğan as well. This would place them in the same context. So, when they first adopted the opposition identity, they were naturally quite hesitant in their political practices. They had parted ways with Erdoğan, but it was impossible to hide the web of relations necessary to build a new future setup. Despite knowing that uncertainty never served any benefit, they had built conservative opposition on uncertainty, but these days were long in the past now.

The recent political outbursts by both Davutoğlu and Babacan show that they are more comfortable in their approach now. This provides clarity to the political views, as well as their personal position. It can even be said that they have started to overcome the burdens of the past. Thus, Davutoğlu being belittled for his party's share in the percentile indicated a possible crisis in the case of likely success. It would be wrong to say Davutoğlu never lost self-confidence. When he attributed the AK Party’s record-high vote rate to himself, it was not self-confidence speaking. This was almost the first time Davutoğlu spoke on his own behalf as a member of the opposition bloc. He both accepted his party’s position in the percentile and reminded the importance of this position. Babacan’s Turkism outburst should be considered within the same frame. They are finally speaking on their own behalf and eliminating the ambiguity. These outbursts show that the former context is yet to be resolved. Despite their position in the percentile, these statements very clearly show the importance of conservative opponents, and the nature of the ideological identity adopted.

Türkiye has entered a new election process. The criticality of 2023 has been on the agenda for years. This will further escalate tensions. Conservative groups will not remain outside of these tensions. They showed during a period of tumultuous disintegrations that the resistance transitions of groups are not easy. The election period will force them to make a choice as well.