Will Turkish opposition put 'Western fears' to rest?

We know that Western countries such as the U.S., the U.K., France, and Germany have been closely following Türkiye’s May 14 election for a while now. Statements made in this frame by state leaders and government spokespersons concerning this election show that diplomatic practices such as keeping distance or composure, which apply to international relations, do not apply in this case. Additionally, certain articles in media outlets, which provide richer data than state and government circles in terms of following the general trends, drew attention. The difference of such articles published in The New York Times and Politico compared to the others is that they echoed more in Türkiye. It is not hard to guess that such statements and articles will continue until the election.

The article published in Politico briefly says the following about Türkiye’s upcoming presidential election: This election is going to be held on the centenary of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s secular republic. If President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wins, he will leave a much more permanent mark on a geostrategic value of 85 million people. This scares the West, as Erdoğan may be surrounded by greater political powers after the election, and thus build a religiously conservative model, characterized by regional confrontationalism.

According to Politico, the election is putting great pressure on Europe and the Middle East’s security. This is because the victor of this election will have authority on Türkiye’s relations with NATO, they will determine Türkiye’s relations with the U.S., the EU, and Russia, shape the country’s migration policy, and give clarity to Ankara’s role in the Ukraine war. Similarly, Türkiye’s policy concerning the tensions in the East Mediterranean will also be formed in accordance with the leader who wins the election.

These claims from the lengthy article titled, “2023’s most important election: Turkey,” reflect clearly a political preference. The following sections of the article including the opinions of politicians and authors, who give the impression that they are representatives of Western values, is enough to show that the tone is in favor of the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader and presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. This clearly shows that they want Kılıçdaroğlu to win. The headlines listed in relation to Türkiye’s election also make it easy to project what the likely agenda items will be post-election. The list is specifically shaped in accordance with the U.K. and U.S.-led group’s expectations from Türkiye.

There have been extensive discussions internally as well concerning the importance of the May 14 election in terms of Türkiye. It can be said that the election date is being associated with the introduction to Türkiye’s Century, which has been brought up by President Erdoğan for some time now. This is important in terms of understanding why the developments in Türkiye present an opposition to the “Western fear” mentioned in the Politico article. According to this opposition, the U.S. and U.K.-led group very clearly wants Türkiye to be a NATO-devoted country that stands against Russia in the Ukraine war, that is obedient in the East Mediterranean, as well as in the Middle East. There is no need to include the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and the Caspian in this. The process will directly affect them anyway. President Erdoğan, on the other hand, clearly declared that Türkiye will continue its determined position in foreign policy after May 14 as well. This clear opposition may help answer many questions concerning the May 14 election.

There was a very strong opinion that the anti-Erdoğan opposition discourse took shape in accordance with foreign influence. This opinion was further strengthened when the information that some media outlets are foreign-funded spread. Thus, the article published in Politico additionally shows that there is perfect alignment between the national opposition discourse, and the expectations voiced outside. It is no surprise in this respect that the oppositions who stated their opinions to Politico are political members of the same groups. In fact, the same people have no hesitation to hide their outside connections. This applies to right-wing conservative oppositions as well. Hence, we can say that they are making no effort to hide their opposition, which has become quite evident.

Yet, it must be noted that despite being so open, they are trying to draw attention elsewhere with the onion metaphor. Though we cannot say for sure whether they hit the nail on the head. Those who chose the onion as a metaphor should have known what the onion and garlic represent in Islamic literature. It seems they forgot to consult the right-wing conservative opposition on this matter.