History's paradox: economic and ideological contradictions in global crises

The war between Russia and Ukraine is much more than just a conflict between these two nations. In fact, this war is the result of a multitude of potential tensions that could easily escalate into a full-blown war. At its core, the conflict reflects the tension between the Atlantic-based West (the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.) and Eurasia (Russia). The war between Russia and Ukraine reveals the underlying tensions between the continent-based West (continental Europe) and the sea-based West (the U.S. and the UK). This can also be evaluated through the tension line between the Atlantic-based West (the U.S. and the U.K.) and the Core EU (Germany and France). Looking at it from another angle, this war exposes tensions between Core Europe (Germany and France) and Central and Eastern Europe (the Baltic States, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece). The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also an expression of the tension line between the Atlantic-based West (the U.S., the U.K.) and the Indo-Pacific-based West (Australia) with the projection of the tension line of the Pacific-based East (China). This war triggers tension lines between Japan-Russia, Japan-China, South Korea-North Korea, and China-Taiwan. Despite the great distance, the visit of the Communist Party leader of China to Russia and the sighting of the Japanese leader in Kyiv on the same day is not a coincidence. In short, humanity is navigating through a historically fraught gallery. (Türkiye, which has pursued a policy of neutrality so far, stands on the side of this process affecting the Black Sea and the Caucasus. It will probably be difficult for Türkiye to maintain this neutrality in the second and third quarters of this year.)

The prospect of a world war is not as far off as we may think. The only way to stop this trajectory would have been through Europe, but unfortunately, that hasn't happened. Germany, once the undisputed leader of the EU, no longer cares about the Central and Eastern European countries, which have now fallen under the absolute control of the United States, with Poland at the forefront. In fact, Germany has become a focal point of hatred for many of these nations and peoples. With inept politicians like Scholz in charge, Germany appears to have submitted to the wishes of the U.S. France, one of the EU's two founding members and the second-largest power, is rapidly losing power and is falling victim to the wrath of its neighbor, Italy. Macron has become Meloni's punching bag. (Just look at the state of the EU). As such, we are passing through a very treacherous historical gallery as humanity. (Türkiye, which has thus far maintained a policy of neutrality, is now finding it increasingly difficult to remain so, especially given the developments in the Black Sea and the Caucasus in the second and third quarters of this year).

Biden has divided the world ideologically and politically, forcing everyone to clarify their positions. It's not difficult to divide the world ideologically and politically, but it's important to not expect an immediate war to break out. This is because the world's economic structure contains mutual dependencies that go against political and ideological divisions. History is made up of structures, and I believe that among these structures, ideological, political, and legal structures are quite weak. It should be emphasized that among these structures, the most resilient one is the economic structure. Yes, systemic crises begin in this toughest structure, but economic collapse is not its necessary and primary consequence. Every economic crisis hits the more fragile structures outside of it. In other words, there is a reverse process at work in history compared to seismic movements on earth. Earthquakes cause the most damage at their epicenter. However, in historical-human-made earthquakes where economic fault lines are moving, the heaviest damage first appears outside of the economy. Ideologies collapse, religious structures become superficial and deviate from their functions, political structures and classes become corrupt, legal structures lose credibility, etc. In terms of distance, the picture is strange. Economic crises do not hit the place where they began. Instead, they affect the semi-periphery and distant periphery in the division of labor. The economic crisis initiated by the U.S. in the 1970s and 1980s initially caused the collapse of the Soviet Union and its vassal states. Latin America and Asia were devastated. However, these were considered to be temporary problems. Ships were kept afloat with financial bubbles. Indeed, the world experienced some of the best economic days in recent history between 1990 and 2008. Crises that occurred in derivative and technology markets, for example, were considered temporary and were overcome through financial expansion. Even the 2008 housing market crisis was overcome, and things seemed to have improved between 2009 and 2019. The crisis that struck the Soviets in the 1990s has now reached its starting point, the center, namely the U.S., the EU, and Japan. This is what is dangerous. When economic crises begin to hit the centers, it becomes clear that the crises are not temporary but systemic. By that time, it's already too late...