US-China ties: melting ice and shifting alliances

Natural hurricanes strike the Atlantic coast of the United States, but in the realm of politics, the opposite seems to be happening. President Biden, who claims to be a foreign policy expert even more skilled than Kissinger, and his administration are storming through the world like a political and military hurricane. The impact of this hurricane is particularly felt in the European Union (EU), disrupting the integration of European economies, especially Germany and France, with China and Asia.

Moreover, their cheap natural gas supply from Russia is severed, forcing them to purchase the same gas at a significantly higher cost through India and China, incurring additional expenses for Greek shippers. This situation is far from a rational sight for Europe, which prides itself as an unwavering fortress of reason. Instead, the bewildered public is being subjected to a revival of Cold War memories, with the imposition of anti-Russian sentiments. Not stopping there, after various EU member states, they are now burdening countries like Poland and even prosperous nations like Sweden and Finland with militarism.

This policy is presented as a means of rushing to the aid of Ukraine, allegedly victimized by Russian aggression. It is a politics that prohibits debate and alarms everyone, coercing every state to either donate their stockpiled weapons or significant amounts of cash from their budgets to the United States, which will then transfer them as aid to Ukraine. Consequently, every state is being compelled to commit to increasing military spending while planning for the coming years. In this way, the US defense industry, which remains the most vibrant sector of the American economy, will flourish, potentially jeopardizing the accumulated wealth of the EU.

The United States is setting an example today of a state turning into a mafia. Creating chaos to seize accumulated funds worldwide through militarism. The Gulf War and the Arab Spring, not to mention other factors, were carried out with the aim of seizing the wealth of oil-rich Arab capital. They succeeded. One wonders where the billions of dollars that originally belonged to Saddam and Gaddafi, but ultimately to the people of Iraq and Libya, are now. It seems that they are repeating their actions in the Gulf and, in a modified manner, within the EU. Chaos was present in the Arab world yesterday, and today it has reached Europe. To put it bluntly, the Atlantic powers are collapsing upon the EU. One could even interpret this as an attack by the US dollar on the Eurozone.

There is also the Pacific side of things. China is exerting pressure on Taiwan. What happened to Germany in Europe is now happening to Japan, which has significant funds in the Pacific. Well, Japan's evolution into militarism, starting from the end of World War II, will be a lifeline for itself. It is evident that Japan, with a GDP of $4.9 trillion, produces slightly more than Germany (Germany's GDP is around $4.26 trillion). However, the high growth and development dynamism that Japan showed from the 1980s until the late 1990s has gradually been lost since then. It is known that they experienced disruptions in the crisis-ridden 2000s. Although they showed some recovery in the first half of the 2010s, from the second half to the present day, Japan has been experiencing sharp economic declines. In the past 7-8 years, Japan has been stagnant. The German economy follows a similar trend to Japan. However, while Japan's decline occurred between 2010 and 2020, the German economy managed to continue its growth. The development that halted the German economy was the Ukraine-Russia war itself. Recently, we heard that the German economy entered a recession after two consecutive contractions. Militaristic pressures are currently causing Germany to lose, while they provide dynamism to Japan and enable it to shake off its dead weight.

Unfortunately, "foreign policy genius" Biden failed to adjust the storms. The Americans pushed their capacities too far. The US, which is also economically shaky, is unable to recover. There are two aspects where their calculations went wrong. Firstly, the Gulf, which they were always confident in and knew they had in their pocket, betrayed them. Icebreakers operated by China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, which are active in the polar regions, have also melted the ice between China and Iran. China has taken control of the Peace in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf. Secondly, the US believed that even if China and India did not move to the Atlantic side, they would leave Russia alone in any way. But that did not happen. Although China and India did not openly support Russia, they did not participate in the sanctions either. This made Russia's job much easier. Last winter and spring, the US continued to press China in the Pacific. In response, China further warmed its relations with Russia. First, Wang Yi, then Xi Jinping's visits to Moscow, and statements suggesting that the relations would gain a military content alarmed the US. Following Blinken's visit to China and hours-long meetings, the ice between the US and China seems to have slightly melted. China assured Russia that it would not provide military support. Simultaneously, Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang's visit to Germany and his meeting with President Steinmeier suggests that the US-Germany-China relations could be reignited. Well, what are the consequences of these? According to some, this means that the US is easing China's pressure in the Pacific and giving up its insistence on Taiwan. If this equation works, it means that we will be discussing completely different developments in the summer and autumn. Of course, there is also the Biden-Modi meeting, the results of which could directly influence India-Atlantic and Russia-India relations. Frankly, I am not yet so sure about equations like "give Taiwan, win China" or "take Taiwan, sell Russia." we will continue to monitor the situation as it unfolds.