What is reason behind Israeli defense minister’s Türkiye visit?

Israel’s defense minister completed his Türkiye visit. The reinstatement of diplomatic relations between the two states, and the launch of ministerial meetings are surely positive events. There may be tensions between states, but it is the limits of this that are important, not the dose. If these tensions eventually evolve into a fracture at the political-diplomatic plane, the resulting picture will not be a pleasant one. The fracture becoming chronic is much beyond being rationally acceptable. Hence, the developments, and the steps taken toward normalization are positive. 

Having high expectations from these meetings is a different story. This is not like arguing on the street and then making up and walking arm in arm. Ending relations is sudden and easy, but mending them takes quite some time. Complete normalization of relations between Türkiye and Israel, with the launch of intense cooperation should be evaluated in this manner. Hence, the Israeli minister displayed a quite cautious and distant stance in his statements. Let us not forget that Israel’s elections are coming up as well. If projections are right, and Benjamin Netanyahu comes to power again with the support of other right parties advocating Zionist extremism – much like before – it can be said that the ray of hope will largely fade, even if not be lost completely. In this case, Israeli President Isaac Herzog, Prime Minister Yair Lapid, and Defense Minister Benny Ganz’s relatively moderate opinion of Türkiye will be gone. 

The best part of the more than a decade in which Türkiye-Israel relations were sour was the fact that the trade volume carried on at striking levels without being affected by the state of relations. This is what is healthy and kept hopes alive with respect to restarting comprehensive relations through mutual benefits. Ending relations both politically and economically at the same time is very destructive, and very difficult to repair. If the two countries are able to take even baby steps today towards diplomatic and political normalizations, it is due to the fact that they were able to continue economic relations even during times when tensions were highest. There is no doubt that in this case, the economy paved the way for politics. 

One of the most asked questions is whether a new area of cooperation can be developed through the East Mediterranean’s natural resources. This is a newly emerged potential. Expecting it to be included in the existing volume of economic relations, which has been unaffected by tensions to date, and – going a little further – thinking this likely deal will help overcome the matters of political disputes as well, seems like an extreme interpretation. A reciprocal equation is being set here. This should not be mixed with existing economic relations paving the way for politics. On the contrary, in order for this major cooperation to be on the agenda and work, politics must first pave the way for the economy. 

Israel’s East Mediterranean policies are currently taking shape through Egypt to its west, and Southern Cyprus, and Greece to its north. The state of Türkiye-Egypt and Türkiye-Greece relations is obvious. Furthermore, these relations have gained strategic and military depth. The “noble” Turkish media has once again made some hasty, superficial, and irresponsible comments without knowledge. There have been those who described Ganz’s Türkiye visit after postponing his visit to Greece as a radical transformation in Israel’s state policies, and that the arrow is pointing to Türkiye. We can see that this is far from the truth in the clear responses Ganz gave to questions journalists asked him about the Iron Dome defense system Israel is contemplating to give to Southern Cyprus. Ganz stated that this has nothing to do with his visit to Türkiye, and Israel’s relations with Southern Cyprus and Greece are a completely different phase. Thus, Israel is determined to make its political and military investments in countries with which Türkiye has ongoing hostilities, and is keeping this in a completely separate compartment. 

Then we may ask: Why did Ganz prioritize the visit to Türkiye? It is likely that Türkiye mentioned the East Mediterranean, energy matters in the bilateral meetings during this visit. I don’t think Ganz listened to these and glossed over them as “we’ll see.” I believe Israel’s focus in the Türkiye visit was not the Mediterranean but the Black Sea, and the Caspian, concretely the Russia-Ukraine war, and the events, as well as the likely events in the Caucasus and Iran. If there is any cooperation they want to build with Türkiye, it is probably a completely separate plan from the others.