Assad's visit to the Omani capital...

Visit to Muscat

Syrian dictator Bashar Assad paid an official visit to Muscat, the capital of Oman on Feb. 20. Assad, who set foot in Oman for the first time since the popular uprising that started in Syria in 2011, was greeted at the airport by Sultan Haitham bin Tariq and other officials with the highest level protocol. After the contacts that continued throughout the day, Assad returned to Damascus with a crowd of ministers, consultants, businessmen, journalists, and intelligence officers accompanying him. The Syrian delegation used the airspaces of Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during the trip.

Since the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquake that took place on February 6 had a serious impact on Syria -the death toll exceeded 5,000 according to various estimates-, Oman's embrace of Assad was interpreted as part of "earthquake diplomacy". Oman official sources also highlighted this aspect of the visit both in the statements made and in their social media posts. However, when we look carefully at the developments in the Middle East, especially in the last two years, it can be easily seen that Assad's contacts in Muscat are actually a continuation of the process of "re-integrating Syria into the ranks of the Arab League":

After the Abu Dhabi administration reactivated its embassy mission in Damascus, UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed went to Syria on 9 November 2021 to meet with Bashar Assad and other officials. As a clear sign of the intensification of contacts between the two countries, Assad personally visited the UAE this time on March 18, 2022, and met with the Emir of Dubai and the Prime Minister of the UAE, Mohammed bin Rashid. Last week, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi visited Damascus for the first time since 2011, followed by a new visit by the UAE Foreign Minister.

The earthquake, on the other hand, brought a new phase to this rapprochement process between Syria and the Arab world. On February 7, while Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi was talking to Bashar Assad on the phone for the first time, Saudi Arabia and the UAE sent large amounts of aid to the earthquake-affected areas in Syria. Undoubtedly, the Arab country that took the toughest stance against the Assad regime during the popular uprising in 2011 was Qatar. As a continuation of this stance, Qatar limited its aid in the earthquake zone only to the regions controlled by the opposition in northern Syria, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE delivered aid to both the opposition and the areas in the hands of the regime. And finally, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said, “Dialogue with the Syrian government is needed. We see that the current status quo is useless to solve problems, there is consensus among Arabs on this issue," he said. Riyadh over time stopped hinting that it would put its diplomatic mission in Damascus back into service, and did not implement the aforementioned practice, which the UAE went ahead with in 2018. The only contact that the Saudis made with the Assad regime - at least overtly - was the visit of Intelligence Chief Khalid al-Humaidan to Damascus in 2021.

Taking all of this into account, it is no surprise that Bashar Assad will appear in Muscat, the capital of Oman. Moreover, the Oman administration, which recalled its ambassador in Damascus in 2012 after Syria was excluded from the Arab League, established diplomatic relations with the Assad regime in 2020 and became the first Gulf country to send its ambassador back to Damascus – the UAE was content with opening its embassy. . Assad's visit to Muscat also had a difference: In addition to the protocol level applied, unlike previous visits, it was not announced to the press after it had happened, and the briefings were made simultaneously. This was a clear message from Oman and Syria to both the Arab public and the international community.

Oman, which shapes its foreign policy within the framework of the motto "Friendly to all / foe to no one", stands in a different place in the Arab world. Muscat administration simultaneously maints warm contacts with Israel, Iran, U.S., Russia, China, England, Egypt, Türkiye, etc.

When you put the fact that Ibadism, the dominant religious belief in Oman, is a modern adaptation of Kharijiteism in history, with the Nusayri roots of the Damascus regime, Shiite Iran's satellite in the Middle East, the equation becomes even more colorful.

Of course, a one-day visit alone is not enough to solve complex equations. But following the steps taken in the political labyrinths of the capitals is an indispensable condition for developing long-term policies.