Be prepared for US-patented attempts in Syria

An important piece of news hit agencies in recent days. Accordingly, Tehran doubled oil prices for Damascus and has asked that payments be made in advance.

Considering Bashar Assad’s regime is being tested with a major energy crisis, it is clear how vital this decision is for Damascus. Fuel is now on the black market in the country. It is reported that 50 percent of bakeries in Damascus and its surroundings have closed down due to the energy crisis. Syrian administration is resorting to power outages in order to find a solution to the crisis. It is additionally postponing basketball and football matches, and increasing the weekend holiday in public institutions from two to three days. This is a tough situation for a country with 70 percent of its oil fields controlled by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorist organization.

Regardless of the reason, this is no simple business decision. At a time when energy is used as a diplomatic weapon, this move must first be read and interpreted through a political lens.

In the final analysis, the communication traffic between Ankara, Moscow, and Damascus is forming a new roadmap concerning Syria’s future. The current picture shows that as the new roadmap is forming, Tehran is concerned it is being excluded from the game. Iranian diplomacy wants to be part of the process, and direct the developments in favor of its own interests. Therefore, we can interpret the oil price decision as a threat to Damascus.

Hence, one week after the oil decision, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian first visited Damascus, then Ankara. He met Tuesday with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. He said at the joint press conference with Çavuşoğlu, “We are very pleased about the change in Ankara-Damascus relations.” Çavuşoğlu’s statement that, “We underlined the criticality of Iran’s contribution to this process. This was personally emphasized by our president,” was important. Iran’s efforts to be part of the process will increasingly continue. Let us end the Iran matter here and get on to a more important topic.

The U.S. is another actor that feels left out of the game. According to my research, the U.S. is curious about the content of the matters discussed in the Ankara-Moscow-Damascus triangle. It is stated that Washington is making great effort to find this out.

Any decision that develops during the process, and a likely deal will make U.S. presence in Syria questionable. If Ankara and Damascus reach an agreement with respect to removing the PKK terrorist organization from the east of the Euphrates, this will create great pressure on U.S. to leave the region. Washington made a significant investment in Syria through the PKK, and based all its game plans on the terrorist organization.

I wrote about it in a previous column. Following the İstiklal Avenue attack in Istanbul, the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) hit terrorist targets in Syria’s north. The specific targets were the large oil wells operated by the PKK. I obtained new information about that operation. The oil wells were not the only targets during the air raids, but also the facilities the U.S. spent hundreds of millions of dollars to build for the terrorist organization, the wireless and communications systems, as well as infrastructure elements. It is thus not difficult to guess that the Pentagon is outraged.

Those who are familiar with how Washington works will know that it will make a move to change or affect the course of a process that will make its presence in Syria questionable.

As known, Minister Çavuşoğlu met the other day in Washington with his American counterpart Anthony Blinken. Washinton presented Ankara in this meeting with a new roadmap for Syria. This can be understood from Çavuşoğlu’s statement, “They made some offers in relation to refocusing on Syria, and cooperation.” We do not know yet the details of the proposal, but this was the first move by the U.S. in the diplomatic-political field against the ongoing process along the Ankara-Moscow-Damascus line. There will be indirect, covert new moves to come. We need to be prepared for certain U.S.-patented attempts.

It would be no surprise for Daesh to pop up in Syria again, for example. Lies in international media claiming “Türkiye backs jihadis” will increase. Gossip that Türkiye kills regime generals will start circulating on social media in an effort to ruin the grounds for dialogue. There are even those who believe that the U.S. will use as an excuse during this process dialogue with the regime to provoke the opposition supported by Türkiye, and call on the opposition group to unite under the PKK’s Syrian wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). We are entering a new period that must be followed closely.