Does Türkiye have a secret demand from Sweden?

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Sweden and Finland decided to join NATO. However, their membership bid got blocked by Ankara. Reason being that Sweden – and to an extent, Finland – overlooks terrorist organization members’ operations, as well as its covert sanctions against Ankara.

You already know what happened next. The three countries started negotiations, and the sides involved guaranteed that they would eliminate Türkiye’s concerns. In fact, a memorandum was signed on June 28 between the trio.

However, some of the statements made last week show that there is a problem regarding the process. Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said, “Ankara’s blockage against the two countries is harming NATO’s reliability.” Those who read this statement carefully will see the “pressure Ankara” imply between the lines. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, on the other hand, claimed, “Türkiye has demands for NATO membership that we cannot and do not want to meet.”

Let’s pause here for a moment. The implication in Swedish prime minister’s words can lead to the interpretation that Türkiye made demands additional to the items signed in the memorandum.

Upon hearing this statement, I asked my sources if Ankara had a new demand for Stockholm. The answer was, “no.”

Therefore, we need to focus on the following three questions: 1. What is in that memorandum? 2. What promises were made to Türkiye? 3. How is the “to-do” list looking?

I sought the answer to these questions in the corridors of diplomacy. There are two main titles that stand out in the memorandum. First, all covert or open weapon sanctions against Türkiye shall be lifted. The sanctions were quickly lifted. However, as buying weapons from the two countries is no strategic matter for Ankara, it is underlined that the lifted sanctions are not sufficient for NATO membership.

Second, the two countries will stop supporting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Fetullahist Terrorist Organization (FETÖ). Sweden and Finland’s signatures are under the commitment that says, “Operations by all persons involved in the PKK and all other terrorist organizations, their extensions, affiliated organizations, and shell organizations, or who have ties to these terrorist organizations will be prevented.”

Sweden had to change its legislation on terrorism for this. They did do it – partially. However, even though their laws on terrorism were changed, it is pointed out that terrorist organization members are still able to demonstrate in Sweden using the organizations symbols. Sources mentions displeasure in this respect, and say, “The discourse changed, but the practice is ongoing.”

Furthermore, according to the memorandum between the three countries, PKK and FETÖ members who are terrorist suspects in Türkiye need to be repatriated. There is a total of 23 people, whom Türkiye wants these two countries repatriate. As many as 14 of these are residing in Sweden. Neither Sweden nor Finland have yet taken a step in this regard. Sweden in particular is presenting various excuses to avoid the repatriation of these people. For example, in reference to one terror suspect, they said, “He is a Swedish citizen as well, so we cannot repatriate him.” Concerning the repatriation specifically of FETÖ members, they claim, “The act committed is not a crime according to our laws,” and that the decision to repatriate these people belongs to the judiciary. The problem experienced in FETÖ member Bülent Keneş’s repatriation is based on this same reason.

It is said that Swedish authorities point to the legislation change, suggesting they are the European country cooperating most with Türkiye regarding anti-terrorism, and that they are unwilling to take any further steps.

Well, will the knot be untied, or will it become even more tangled? Ankara declared very clearly earlier that it will not approve the two countries’ NATO membership unless effective steps are taken regarding the items signed in the memorandum. Ankara will reiterate its sensitivities in the third round of meeting that will kick off in the upcoming days.

Sweden and Finland want to become NATO members. They are aware that in order for this to happen, the items in the memorandum must be fulfilled. The Swedish prime minister, stuck between the local public and Ankara’s expectations said the other day, “Türkiye has demands we do not want to meet as well,” and identified this as a “misunderstanding.” This shows they are aware of this obligation. Yet, according to one analysis, they want to wait and see the results of Türkiye’s presidential election this year. Therefore, a development regarding the two countries’ NATO membership seems quite unlikely until June.