How to decipher Fidan's "final rupture" statement

The message delivered by Türkiye's Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, a few days ago is quite significant, and it deserves some attention. Fidan used the expression, "The moral superiority of the United States has been seriously undermined. Perhaps we are on the verge of a permanent rupture," concerning the crisis in the region. I will delve into the meaning of this statement, but first, there are a few points to address.

In this crisis, we previously emphasized how Israel's military and intelligence's deterrence façade had crumbled. Israel is attempting to compensate for this by targeting civilians, as expected. The attack on the Ehl-i Baptist Hospital resulted in the loss of 471 lives, including children, women, and patients. This is a significant massacre, and it marks a pivotal moment affecting the geopolitical and diplomatic course of the tension.

Israel is preparing for a ground assault it had previously declared. Israel has yet to take action for various reasons, including its efforts to anticipate Hamas' surprises on the ground, the analysis of the burden that will be imposed by opening a new front from Lebanon, and, for now, the restraining influence of the United States. The Washington administration is negotiating with Egypt for the evacuation of Gaza's citizens. However, Egypt is not fulfilling the requests, citing concerns that Gazans would be left defenseless.

When the conditions are ripe, Israel will initiate a ground assault (and by the time you read this, Biden's visit might have been the catalyst). The target is the occupation of Gaza. Israel aims to push Gazans to Egypt, thereby expanding the dimensions of the occupation. The next objective is the creation of a buffer zone in the south of Syria (for more details, please refer to our article, "Geopolitical Fault Lines in Play," February 10, 2023).

ABD is actively encouraging Israel, using warships, President visits, and intimate photo ops, despite the hospital massacre and whatever else may happen. ABD is stoking the flames of violence. President Erdogan's statements indicate how uncomfortable Ankara is with the U.S.'s stance.

It is essential to read Ankara's position correctly. Türkiye believes that concrete steps are necessary to end the cycle of violence that has lasted for years. They argue that the two-state solution can only be achieved by putting it into practice. In this context, there is an intensive diplomatic traffic. President Erdogan underscores the need for action to solve the problem in his telephone conversations with counterparts. Foreign Minister Fidan explained Türkiye's guarantor model at the meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation two days ago.

Does the guarantor system work? It imposes responsibility on regional countries for achieving peace and ensuring the continuity of the two-state system. The interlocutors in the discussions are believed to find Ankara's proposal interesting and have a positive approach. (Russia stated, "We are ready to negotiate any constructive proposal.") Everyone agrees on the need for concrete steps to be taken. However, there is a significant obstacle. For the system to function, Israel must also accept it as a part of the solution. It is not currently feasible to make progress with the radical leadership in Tel Aviv. Based on the statements, I conclude that what Ankara expects is that regional countries should intervene, that they should take a common stance to persuade Israel, and that they should take coercive measures if necessary.

What does the phrase "on the verge of a permanent rupture" imply? In my view, this statement has two dimensions. Firstly, regardless of what Israel does, the U.S. support for Tel Aviv positions it as a guardian of bullying and lawlessness, which creates a significant gap between it and the countries and people in the region.

In conclusion, there is another dimension that is of particular concern to Ankara. I wrote earlier concerning the U.S.'s concern about the loss of the Turkish UAV in "Can the U.S. Stop Türkiye?" on October 7. On October 13, Biden emphasized that Turkish operations in Syria threaten U.S. national security. On the same day, President Erdogan responded to Biden, saying, "The activities of the United States are a threat to our national security." Ankara is voicing its dissatisfaction with the U.S.-PKK relationship increasingly loudly every day. One of the reasons for the emphasis on a "permanent rupture" is likely this.

I will conclude this piece with a note. I have gained new insights into the anti-terrorism operation carried out in northern Syria, which the U.S. expressed concern about. Forty-five strategic targets of the PKK terrorist organization were struck in the operation. All infrastructure investments made by the organization with U.S. funds in the past year were eliminated. It is reported that the organization, which has suffered numerous casualties and losses in this operation, is trying to conceal its losses. Security forces continue to work on identifying and confirming the names of those neutralized in this operation.